Mass Sell-Off! Global Markets Are in Danger

Article reposted from the WeChat official account: Bao Finance Pro Are you prepared for a U.S. financial storm? 01 "The Oracle of Omaha" Warren Buffett has executed a near-total liquidation of his Bank of America holdings. Following three consecutive trading days of selling—on September 25, 26, and 27—totaling 11.678 million shares of Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway sold over 9.5 million additional shares across the most recent three trading days. This marks Berkshire’s 15th round of disclosed Bank of America share sales since mid-July, raising approximately $10.5 billion. Berkshire’s current stake in Bank of America stands at 775 million shares, representing roughly 9.987% of the bank’s total shares—its first time falling below the regulatory “critical threshold” of 10%. Going forward, if Berkshire sells further, it will only need to disclose such transactions in its quarterly filings (whereas holdings above 10% require disclosure within two business days). This means Buffett can now continue reducing his Bank of America position quietly and incrementally. Over the past six months, Berkshire has fully exited positions in several other banks—including U.S. Bancorp, Wells Fargo, and The Bank of New York Mellon. In fact, Bank of America is not the company Buffett has sold the most. As of the end of Q2, Berkshire had reduced its Apple stake by as many as 390 million shares—cutting its holding from 789 million shares at the end of Q1 to roughly 400 million shares, a nearly 50% decline. A simple calculation shows that Apple’s stock price rose from $171 to $210 at market close on June 28 (the latest date covered in the disclosed Q2 filing). Using the lowest intra-quarter price of $164.075, Berkshire’s Apple sales raised over $63 billion (approx. RMB 450 billion); using the highest intra-quarter price of $220, proceeds exceeded $85 billion (approx. RMB 600 billion). Buffett’s enormous profits from these two stocks alone do not fully demonstrate his investment mastery; rather, it is the timing of these sales—selling near the peak (though Apple’s stock has since rebounded strongly)—that once again commands awe and respect. 02 Why is Berkshire selling so aggressively? Simply put: Buffett may already sense risk approaching! In September, the Federal Reserve launched its latest easing cycle—cutting rates by 50 basis points in one go. At the time, we noted that historically, the Fed rarely initiates a new easing cycle with a 50-basis-point cut unless facing a major economic crisis. That’s not all: markets now expect further rate cuts, with at least another 50 basis points likely before year-end. What even Americans didn’t anticipate was that, following the U.S. rate cut, China’s stock market surged first. Subsequently, the U.S. appeared compelled to revise both its policy stance and market expectations—shifting its earlier narrative of deteriorating employment data and unexpectedly low CPI readings to now claiming a suddenly robust labor market and an ambiguous CPI picture. In short: rate cuts won’t come as quickly or as deeply as previously expected. The Fed even released minutes from its September meeting to temper market expectations. Yet regardless of how the U.S. manipulates market sentiment, one thing is certain: the U.S. monetary policy has entered a rate-cutting cycle. All current maneuvers are merely short-term efforts to manage market expectations—perhaps in anticipation of renewed inflation, or perhaps outright financial warfare.

Warren Buffett’s latest series of moves: Why are they signals worthy of global economic attention?

If you don’t seize profit when it’s there, you’re unworthy of the title ‘capitalist.’ And from these moves, several clear signals emerge. Secondly, while outsiders see only spectacle, insiders recognize substance: Buffett is now aggressively buying oil stocks—and acquiring stakes in Japan’s five largest sogo shosha (general trading companies), all of which hold massive physical assets. Is the man simply losing his faculties in old age? Does he no longer believe in U.S. consumer strength? After all, he has invested in American consumer brands for nearly four decades. There’s an old Chinese saying: “Small wealth comes from diligence; medium wealth from virtue; great wealth from fate.” But this proverb actually has an unspoken second half: “Wealth that defies fate requires staking one’s entire fortune.” That latter part doesn’t quite fit Buffett—because, as capitalism’s ultimate ‘white glove,’ the Oracle possesses informational and decision-making advantages far beyond those of ordinary investors—or even Wall Street capital. This is Buffett, in his twilight years, issuing a stark, real-money warning to the world: the United States must eventually pay a price for its long-standing choice to shift its economy away from tangible production toward financialization. That price will be measured in declining dollar value and purchasing power. This is, unequivocally, a core-hedging strategy: • One hand heavily bets on Apple—betting on the continued dominance of the U.S. dollar; • The other hand heavily invests in real assets—hedging against the collapse of dollar hegemony; • And finally, holding massive cash reserves—betting on arbitrage opportunities during the residual phase of dollar dominance. (Berkshire’s latest reported cash holdings hit a record $277 billion.) The logic here is intricate—the pace is fast—but it’s worth slowing down to carefully reflect on this hedging portfolio. It’s brilliant, cunning, balanced, and deeply strategic. Finally, don’t overlook the positioning signals from other U.S. asset managers: Beyond Berkshire, numerous major asset management firms have also published their Q2 holdings reports. • Bridgewater Fund reduced its NVIDIA stake by 489,000 shares and its Google stake by 828,000 shares in Q2, and slashed its Apple position by nearly 75%—down to just 469,000 shares—while increasing Amazon holdings by 1.59 million shares and Microsoft by 510,000 shares. • HHLR Advisors—the independent, publicly traded fund management platform spun off from Hillhouse Capital—added or increased positions in Chinese internet ADRs including Alibaba, Vipshop, NetEase, and Trip.com, while trimming positions in Pinduoduo, Amazon, Microsoft, Danaher, and KE Holdings, and fully exiting AMD. • BlackRock increased its stakes in the U.S. tech ‘Magnificent Seven’—adding 16.88 million shares of NVIDIA, 9.69 million shares of Apple, and nearly 9 million shares of Microsoft—while cutting positions in Broadcom and Berkshire Hathaway. These disclosures reveal where ‘smart money’ is flowing. Reviewing numerous institutional 13F filings, we find some strategies converge, while others sharply diverge. Yet one underlying truth remains constant: every year, individuals and institutions outperform Buffett—but over decades, there remains only one Warren Buffett. Ponder carefully the logic and causality embedded in this observation. Based on this detailed analysis, Buffett has used his actions—not words—to articulate his judgment on the future trajectory of U.S. monetary policy, the broader economy, and associated risks. Clearly, the Oracle’s outlook is not optimistic—it is cautious, conservative, and emphatically hedged.

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