From eggs and lychees to pistachios, extreme weather is triggering consecutive price hikes—how much more of this 'climate bill' must ordinary people bear in daily consumption? Is it controllable or uncontrollable?

There is a nearly 90% probability that the El Niño event will reach 'strong' intensity by autumn 2026. It alters atmospheric circulation, triggering extreme weather such as droughts and heavy rainfall. Historically, every El Niño event has triggered a cascade of economic losses. In 2026, these changes have already begun to show. Seemingly distant and barely perceptible cost increases are crossing oceans, thinly spreading across the prices of various goods. Next, the shocks brought by extreme weather will transmit step-by-step downward—until they knock on the door of ordinary people. Extreme weather is striking ordinary people’s wallets with unequal force. If you pay close enough attention, you can spot its traces in something as simple as an egg. On Walmart shelves, a pack of 30 antibiotic-free, clean eggs (net weight: 1.59 kg) has risen from ¥17.9 in June to ¥21.9 today; at Hema Fresh, an equivalent pack of 'safe, clean, fresh eggs' has climbed from ¥18.9 to ¥22.8. Even at cheaper wholesale markets, you’ll see eggs rising nearly 10% within half a month—the current price per jin (500 g) is ¥5.45, up 40% year-on-year. This most commonplace food item in daily life is now exerting pressure on ordinary people—by several yuan at a time, and at dozens of times the usual pace. This pressure originates thousands of kilometers away—from a patch of warming seawater disturbing land-based 'people just trying to get by' and their pocketbooks. In May 2026, sea surface temperatures rose along the equator in the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. Cao Yunchang, researcher at the China Meteorological Administration’s Meteorological Center, once likened it to the 'Pacific Ocean running a fever.' Starting at the end of that month, average egg prices shot upward like firecrackers—growing steadily more expensive. On June 3, egg prices broke the highest同期 record in nearly ten years. Globally, Japan, France, and South Korea are seeing similar trends. Behind eggs, an invisible link is quietly emerging. As rising air currents depart Syria and follow the warm current westward toward the central region, only an increasingly intense subtropical high-pressure system remains over the western Pacific. As taught in high-school geography textbooks, this system is massive and slow-moving—and essentially determines China’s entire summer climate. Beneath the subtropical high, skies remain cloudless, air sinks, and the sun blazes down. This year’s early summer saw an especially intense influence from the high. On May 29, at a poultry farm in Maoming, Guangdong, over a thousand laying hens suffered heatstroke and died. At peak heat, local temperatures reached 36°C—'even spraying water couldn’t help; it was simply too hot.' Chickens lack sweat glands; death and reduced egg-laying are mostly due to severe heat stress. According to Mysteel monitoring, for every 1°C rise in temperature, laying hen egg production drops by 1–2%; under suboptimal conditions typical of small-scale farms—where chicken coops become extremely stuffy—this decline can widen to 10–20%. By late June, China’s national laying hen inventory stood at approximately 1.273 billion birds. Assuming a 93% laying rate, one day of intense heat exposure caused at least 37 million eggs to vanish from the planet. Another food that leaves ordinary consumers feeling 'stabbed in the back' is lychee. Before the seawater warmed, the atmosphere had already begun brewing change. From late 2025 through early 2026, the subtropical high lingered over southern China—home to 7 million mu (≈467,000 hectares) of lychee orchards—bringing clear skies, cloudless days, and unusually warm weather.

With the Iran war still unresolved and a 'super El Niño' looming, is a global food price surge imminent?

Joe Davis also pointed out that persistent drought in the U.S. Great Plains—and deteriorating crop conditions, as reflected in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) report released Monday—likewise support wheat’s relative strength against corn and soybeans. 'Wheat has outperformed corn and soybeans in the “risk-on” rebound since the ceasefire low point—precisely due to the combined effect of these two factors,' he said. According to Bloomberg’s survey of analysts, USDA’s upcoming Thursday release of the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is expected to show declining U.S. wheat stocks—further supporting wheat prices. Fertilizer crisis weighs heavily on the U.S. planting season The impact of the Iran war on fertilizer markets arrives at an especially inopportune time—coinciding precisely with the full launch of the U.S. planting season. The sharp rise in energy prices and fertilizer costs has left American farmers deeply anxious about this year’s crop yields and food prices. Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS, noted in a research report issued at the end of March that every surge in energy prices inevitably triggers concerns about rising food prices—rooted in the fact that fertilizer production is highly energy-intensive, and natural gas serves as a key feedstock for producing certain chemicals. Dawid Heyl, Co-Head of Global Natural Resources Strategy at Ninety One, candidly admitted in a CNBC video interview that he is more concerned about food inflation stemming from the current Iran war than he was during the earlier Russia-Ukraine conflict: 'I am far more worried about this Iran war than I was about the Russia-Ukraine conflict—primarily because of its direct impact on nitrogen fertilizer production and supply availability.' Probability of a 'super El Niño' formation rises European climate models indicate a higher likelihood than U.S. forecasts of an exceptionally strong—or even 'super'—El Niño event. However, such predictions inherently suffer from uncertainty due to the so-called 'spring predictability barrier.' El Niño refers to the natural warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific; it is officially declared when sea temperatures there exceed the long-term average by at least 0.5°C. Though not an official scientific classification, a 'super El Niño' generally denotes an exceptionally intense phase where sea temperatures run at least 2°C above normal. Chris Jaccarini characterizes this climate risk as a major amplifier of current inflationary pressures: 'Food prices are being squeezed from both ends: on one side, extreme climate events are disrupting production in major growing regions; on the other, our food system’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels exposes it acutely to rising costs for oil and gas, fertilizers, transportation, and packaging.' He wrote in an email to CNBC: 'This is precisely why the prospect of a strong El Niño event is so alarming—it amplifies risks within a climate system already destabilized by human emissions, compounding the inflationary push from high fossil fuel prices.' Paul Donovan likewise wrote in his report: 'If a super-El Niño weather pattern truly materializes in 2026, drought and limited water supplies could pose a greater threat than nitrogen fertilizer shortages.' Dual risks converge—global food security alarm sounds Should both the war shock and the climate shock fully materialize, their combined effect would far exceed the impact of either factor alone. Dawid Heyl spoke bluntly about this scenario: 'If both negative factors occur simultaneously, the situation could become extremely difficult.'

Climate Change Is Making These Grocery Items More Expensive This Year

1 day ago

Zero Carbon Analytics links extreme weather to persistent inflation in global food commodities like corn, wheat, and beef. Record heat and drought reduce harvests, threatening supply chains and pushing consumer prices higher through 2027.

bloomberg

2026-09-30

Climate Change Is Making These Grocery Items More Expensive This Year

Climate Change Is Making These Grocery Items More Expensive This Year

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