Why are coffee prices remaining high despite expectations of a surplus in the 2026/27 season?

The main reason for sustained high prices—still around $3 per lb—is the low level of ICE arabica stocks, which have fallen to under 220,000 bags, about 70% held in Antwerp, Belgium; this is a 26-year low and far below the historical range of 1 million to 5 million bags seen from the mid-2000s until early 2022.

What impact are the upcoming Brazilian coffee shipments expected to have on ICE exchange stocks and prices?

Shipments from Brazil—potentially totaling 300,000 bags, including 150,000–200,000 bags each from Olam and Louis Dreyfus Company—are expected to more than double ICE certified stocks and weigh on prices, though they will not restore stocks to the 1-million-bag level traders consider comfortable; already over 62,000 bags have arrived at exchange depots awaiting grading, and rising exchange stockpiles signal excess supply, prompting algorithm-driven funds to sell and investors to bet on price falls.

Coffee traders' big shipments are set to boost exchange stocks and weigh on prices

Sep 11, 2026

Major traders plan significant Brazilian arabica coffee shipments to ICE warehouses, potentially doubling certified stocks from 26-year lows and exerting downward pressure on global benchmark prices.

reuters

2026-09-11

Coffee traders' big shipments are set to boost exchange stocks and weigh on prices

Coffee traders' big shipments are set to boost exchange stocks and weigh on prices

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