LME and NYMEX copper prices both hit record highs! Tariff expectations and supply shortages drive the rally.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper benchmark contract surged to a record high of $14,858.50 per tonne, surpassing the previous day’s peak of $14,779.00—marking its third consecutive session of all-time highs. Meanwhile, copper futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) also climbed to a record high of $6.894 per pound. The immediate catalyst for this rally is persistent market expectations that the Trump administration will impose tariffs on refined copper imports, prompting large-scale shipments of metal into the United States and significantly tightening physical supply in the London market. It should be noted that the U.S. military strike against Iranian oil tankers pushed Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, heightening market concerns over inflation prospects and the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory—exerting some downward pressure on copper prices. Tariff expectations distort metal flows, straining supply in the London market One of the core drivers behind this sharp copper price surge is the impact of large-scale metal re-routing on the LME’s physical market. Anticipating potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper imports, traders have rushed to ship hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper to the U.S. for stockpiling—causing a marked tightening of physical supply outside the U.S. and resulting in a supply shortage in the London market. According to reports, the U.S. Department of Commerce was originally scheduled to submit a report to the White House by the end of June recommending whether such tariffs are warranted—but it has missed this deadline. The delay in the report has failed to ease tariff expectations; instead, this lingering uncertainty continues to dominate trader behavior, prolonging pre-emptive stockpiling activity.

Copper prices approach all-time highs! UBS remains bullish: “Still our most constructive commodity theme.”

Théa Ziegler, a member of UBS’s U.S. equity advisory sales team, wrote in Friday’s report: “Copper remains one of our highest-conviction commodity themes.” She noted that demand growth driven by electrification and data center construction is expected to persistently outpace supply growth, leaving copper’s structural price support intact. Electrification, data center construction, and ongoing supply constraints will continue to underpin copper’s long-term constructive outlook. For investors, the key takeaway is that supply growth over the coming years is expected to lag behind demand growth—supporting elevated copper prices—even as tariff and trade-policy uncertainties remain in the near term. On Friday, copper closed at approximately $14,622 per tonne. Ziegler believes the copper supply deficit will extend into the early 2030s. Meanwhile, two critical variables—the Chilean mine strikes and critically low global inventories—are converging, further compressing the market’s buffer capacity. Chilean strike sounds the supply alarm Natalia Corfield, Head of Latin American Corporate Credit Research at J.P. Morgan, noted this week that a strike has broken out at Centinela, a major copper mine in Chile operated by Antofagasta. According to Bloomberg, the two unions leading the labor action have warned that, if the strike continues, Centinela could begin cutting copper output in as little as two weeks.

Copper Climbs to Three-Week High on Strike Threat, Fed Comments

Oct 13, 2026

Copper prices hit a three-week high near $14,700 per ton following strike threats at BHP's Escondida mine and Federal Reserve comments on interest rates. The potential supply disruption from Chile adds to market volatility amidst broader economic uncertainty.

bloomberg

Copper Climbs to Three-Week High on Strike Threat, Fed Comments

FAQ