The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has officially banned exports of refined copper and cobalt concentrates; 70% of global cobalt supply will be affected, and international copper prices have surged accordingly—what impacts will this generate?

However, it’s worth reminding everyone that news about copper is becoming increasingly frequent, with many headlines suggesting copper is extremely tight. In reality, however, long–short divergence has widened significantly from last year into this year, and investors must exercise caution regarding timing when entering the market. This article summarizes both bullish and bearish perspectives, as well as differing short-term versus long-term investment logics: Regarding timing, it can be analyzed from multiple angles—there are simply too many factors involved, so here are a few illustrative examples. First, as detailed in the article above, headlines often attribute copper demand to AI and electric vehicles—but the true growth engine lies in traditional construction, which remains the primary source of incremental demand and ultimately determines copper’s price ceiling. China dominates this segment. The key indicator here is total social financing (TSF), which typically leads physical copper demand by roughly two quarters. Over the past decade-plus, every major copper cycle began with a shift in this metric before translating into copper price movements. Yet looking solely at the aggregate TSF figure is insufficient—you must also examine its composition. Only loans channeled into manufacturing, real estate, and power-grid infrastructure translate into actual copper demand. Local government debt swaps merely relocate existing debt; although headline TSF figures rise, such funds do not flow into the real economy. Thus, another critical indicator must be layered on: corporate medium- and long-term loans—these reflect genuine capital expenditure. If overall TSF rises while corporate loans remain flat, it signals money is stuck within the financial system and failing to reach physical assets. That is precisely the current situation. After TSF contracted in 2025, it has recently turned positive—but this rebound stems largely from government debt swaps initiated at the end of 2024, not from construction-driven recovery. The pivotal question is: when will corporate medium- and long-term loans confirm an upward trend? Second, a supply-side indicator: the Chilean peso. Historically, the Chilean peso closely tracked copper supply–demand dynamics, since copper accounts for roughly half of Chile’s export revenue. Rising copper prices would lift the peso. Now, however, this historical correlation has broken down. Despite copper prices hitting record highs, the peso is depreciating. Export revenue equals price multiplied by volume—and Chile’s export volumes are undergoing structural decline due to falling ore grades and various operational bottlenecks. How can we confirm whether this reflects Chile-specific issues rather than global ones?

After copper prices hit a new high, they cooled off rapidly—what is the logic behind the global ‘copper rush’?

Copper prices, having just set a new historical high, quickly underwent a correction. As of the overnight session closing on September 12, the main SHFE copper contract settled at RMB 108,440 per ton, down 0.20%; trading ranged between RMB 108,350 and RMB 108,830 per ton. International copper prices fell 0.39% in the overnight session. In early September, SHFE copper breached the RMB 110,000-per-ton threshold: on September 8, the main contract closed at RMB 110,620 per ton—the first time in seven months it had surpassed RMB 110,000. Yet over the following several trading days, prices declined consecutively, and currently stand roughly 2% below their prior peak. This rapid pullback was driven primarily by three factors. First, after sustained gains and a new all-time high, some participants locked in profits, triggering concentrated short-term selling pressure. Second, escalating geopolitical tensions pushed up energy prices, altering market expectations regarding inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy path—leading to a stronger U.S. dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, thereby pressuring risk assets like nonferrous metals. Third, markets began reassessing inventory relocation logic tied to anticipated U.S. copper tariffs; if subsequent policy falls short of expectations, copper stocks previously diverted to the U.S. could flow back, potentially easing supply tightness. Entering 2026, copper prices oscillated before breaking above previous highs again, forming a ‘surge–consolidation–re-surge’ stair-step pattern. Unlike the prior cycle—driven mainly by supply constraints—this round’s pricing drivers are more complex: markets are pricing not only copper itself but also mine-supply expectations, cross-regional inventory shifts, anticipated U.S. copper tariff policies, and shifts in investor sentiment. Consequently, copper prices have become markedly more sensitive to individual policy signals and inventory data. Three Forces Converging to Lift Copper Prices Copper’s recent rally was propelled by three interlocking forces: (1) sluggish recovery in mine supply; (2) inventory redistribution driven by tariff expectations; and (3) sustained demand expansion from new-energy and AI-related sectors. These forces temporarily converged—but each carries significant uncertainty. Global copper mine output continues to stall. In August, Codelco’s copper export revenue fell to USD 4.62 billion—a 14% month-on-month decline—mainly due to severe winter storms and disrupted mining operations. Its self-produced copper output in H1 totaled 564,000 tonnes, down 11% year-on-year. Glencore’s self-produced copper in 2025 stood at 851,600 tonnes—down ~41% from 1,453,700 tonnes in 2018—due to declining ore grades, lower recovery rates, and mine closures. Major miners including Freeport-McMoRan face similar challenges: falling grades and rising costs. A more direct signal comes from copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs). TCs represent processing fees smelters charge miners; tighter concentrate supply weakens smelters’ bargaining power, driving TCs lower. The benchmark long-term TC for copper concentrate in 2026 has already dropped to USD 0 per tonne, while spot TCs plunged to a historic low of USD −200.31 per tonne. Excess smelting capacity further intensifies this dynamic, fueling expectations of smelter cuts—and tightening refined copper supply even further. Zijin Mining previously assessed that the scarcity of high-quality copper resources, combined with upstream supply constraints, has cemented a long-term structural shortage in the copper market. Imbalanced inventory distribution constitutes another key upward force.

Copper Edges Higher as Chile Mine Dispute Raises Supply Concerns

1 day ago

Copper futures approached record highs near $14,500/ton following strike votes at Chile's Antofagasta mine. Deutsche Bank forecasts a 50% price surge within six months as negative treatment charges signal shrinking supply.

bloomberg

2026-09-28

Copper Edges Higher as Chile Mine Dispute Raises Supply Concerns

Copper Edges Higher as Chile Mine Dispute Raises Supply Concerns

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