Disturbed copper prices

According to data from Asian Metal, from January to July 2025, the United States imported a total of 1.076 million metric tons of refined copper, up 138.53% year-on-year from 451,000 metric tons in the same period of 2024. Imports were lowest in January and February. Following the U.S. removal of copper tariffs in August 2025, refined copper imports plunged sharply—though still up year-on-year, they declined consecutively on a month-on-month basis. U.S. tariff policy has triggered market expectation volatility, causing fluctuations in copper inventory volumes shipped to the U.S., directly impacting global copper supply-demand dynamics. In 2025, global copper demand stood at approximately 28 million metric tons, roughly matching global copper output. Thus, absent U.S. stockpiling behavior, over one million metric tons of copper inventory would remain available for allocation globally. As of end-August this year, COMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) copper inventories stood at about 760,000 metric tons, while LME inventories totaled around 230,000 metric tons; COMEX stocks primarily serve the U.S. market, whereas LME stocks serve global markets. “If North American inventories—including those in the U.S.—are included in global copper inventory calculations, the global market is oversupplied; however, excluding North American stocks reveals an actual global inventory drawdown process,” said Xiao Chuankang. By mid-2026, rumors resurfaced in markets that the U.S. would re-impose copper tariffs, prompting another surge in U.S. refined copper imports. On June 30, the U.S. Department of Commerce submitted an assessment report recommending a 15% tariff on refined copper effective January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. The formal decision window falls at the end of September this year. Per the Department of Commerce’s July import data, U.S. imports of refined copper and copper alloys reached 225,000 metric tons—the highest monthly figure since records began in 1990. In the first seven months of 2026, total U.S. copper imports amounted to 1.12 million metric tons, up 4.2% year-on-year versus the same period in 2025. LME copper prices surged rapidly starting in July. “Under U.S. tariff-related disruptions, cargo flows shifted toward higher-priced regions, triggering regional shortages and even so-called ‘short squeezes’ in certain markets,” Xiao Chuankang noted. Additionally, Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions have long served as one key source of volatility for global copper prices. Xiao Chuankang explained that, generally, Fed rate hikes tend to depress copper prices, while rate cuts lift them. Due to the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, the Fed has leaned toward hiking rates. The Fed will hold its next monetary policy meeting next week. Macroeconomic data indicators are pivotal in determining whether the Fed will hike rates. With U.S. August wholesale prices—released on September 10 local time—surpassing expectations, markets now anticipate a high probability of a rate hike next week. Demand growth amid supply constraints In the short term, global copper prices are directly affected by U.S. refined copper tariff policies; over the longer term, global copper demand is gradually rising, yet supply faces mounting pressure. “The current primary contradiction lies in supply failing to keep pace with demand growth; rising production costs provide relatively weak support to copper prices,” said Li Chengbin, copper industry analyst at Shanghai Steel Union, speaking to the Economic Observer. Per CITIC Securities data, output from major global copper mining companies declined 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of this year—and has fallen for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2025.

Exness: Gold price breaks below the $4,000 threshold; can bulls hold the line during the 'super central bank week'?

Last week, global gold markets underwent a notably heavy correction. Spot gold broke below the psychological $4,000-per-ounce level on Friday, October 23, hitting a three-month low; its weekly chart recorded the largest single-week decline in over four months. Entering Monday, October 26, gold prices remained hovering near $4,000, with market sentiment showing no marked improvement despite the weekend trading halt. Rising energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, and shifting expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy collectively formed the main backdrop behind gold’s recent pressure. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and the upcoming 'super central bank week' added further complexity to the outlook. Why did gold prices correct sharply last week? Reviewing last week’s price action, spot gold dipped as low as $3,975 per ounce before closing near $3,996—a weekly decline of roughly 4%, marking its worst performance since June. December gold futures on U.S. exchanges moved lower in tandem. The core driver behind this selloff was extreme volatility in energy markets. Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia reignited market fears of potential Middle Eastern energy supply disruptions, sending Brent crude oil to a more-than-five-month high—and briefly pushing it above elevated levels. Higher oil prices directly intensified inflation expectations, prompting markets to reassess the pace at which major central banks might ease monetary policy. Jim Wyckoff, market analyst at U.S. Gold Exchange, pointed out that heightened inflation concerns imply major central banks may not loosen policy as quickly as previously anticipated—posing clear headwinds for gold and silver bulls alike. Concurrently, sharp corrections in technology stocks—especially AI-related equities—triggered margin pressures. Some equity traders and investors, facing margin calls, opted to liquidate gold and silver holdings to raise cash, further amplifying downward pressure on precious metals. Silver, palladium, and platinum all came under pressure last week, falling to near-term lows—reflecting broad-based weakness across the entire precious metals sector driven by declining risk appetite and rising real interest rate expectations. Bond market performance also corroborated gold’s trajectory. Although the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield posted its largest single-day drop in nearly four years on Thursday, it rebounded slightly on Friday—remaining just below 5%. Concerns over the sustainability of the AI-driven rally briefly drove capital into safe-haven assets like Treasuries, but stronger-than-expected inflation data and elevated oil prices capped yield declines. The positive spread between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields reflects relatively resilient market expectations for the economic outlook—weighing on the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Policy expectations and data releases emerge as critical focal points This week, market attention swiftly pivots to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for October 27–28. Traders widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady within the 3.75%–4.00% range; CME FedWatch tool estimates showed over 90% probability for such an outcome at one point. However, pricing for a December rate hike remains robust, with odds approaching 80%. Earlier consumer and producer inflation data—both stronger than expected—have already reinforced the narrative of “higher for longer” interest rates. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—due later this week and favored by the Fed as its preferred inflation gauge—will offer further clues.

Copper Extends Drop as AI Stocks Weigh Ahead of Fed Meeting

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Copper prices extended declines amid AI stock pressure and Fed meeting anticipation, though tight Chinese supplies kept premiums high. Other base metals like aluminum and nickel also fell on the London Metal Exchange.

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