Understanding the Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Copper in One Article

The backdrop to this event is the United States’ persistent copper inventory siphoning pattern. After absorbing a large volume of refined copper from global markets in 2025, the U.S. continued this siphoning trend this year—its domestic copper inventory now exceeds one million tons, with visible inventories rising by over 370,000 tons. From January to July, U.S. refined copper imports rose 3% year-on-year to 1.12 million tons—an increase of 32,000 tons; notably, July’s import volume hit a record high. August imports are expected to remain around 200,000 tons. This massive siphoning has become the core driver behind physical copper shortages in non-U.S. markets. Consequently, following the Department of Commerce’s submission of its investigation report to the White House on June 30, the President faces a 90-day decision window (ending no later than approximately September 28) to sign or reject a tariff implementation order. This decision will not only shape the flow of copper inventories within the U.S. market but has also emerged as a pivotal factor influencing future copper price trends. From a probability standpoint, imposing tariffs appears highly plausible. The Department of Commerce has already determined that imported copper “threatens national security,” satisfying the threshold for initiating a Section 232 investigation. Tariffs under prior Section 232 investigations—on aluminum and steel—have already been implemented; although Trump recently made minor adjustments to aluminum tariffs, the 50% rate remains unchanged, indicating strong policy continuity. More importantly, Trump’s tariff strategy reflects a clear industrial objective: promoting the reshoring of manufacturing and expanding domestic smelting capacity—and refined copper tariffs constitute a critical link in this policy chain. Overall, the likelihood of refined copper tariffs being imposed is relatively high. In terms of scenario analysis, the market’s mainstream view favors a base case: tariffs take effect within the 90-day decision window, with a 15% levy beginning in early 2027 and rising to 30% in 2028. If this scenario materializes, the U.S. will continue siphoning refined copper from non-U.S. markets through Q4, further tightening physically available inventories outside the U.S. and delivering strong bullish support to copper prices. The corresponding bearish scenario would be neither signing nor rejecting the report within the 90-day window—effectively invalidating the Section 232 pathway. Subsequent tariff imposition would then require either restarting the Section 232 process (entailing another 270+90 days), or shifting to alternative legal instruments such as IEEPA, Section 301, or reciprocal tariffs—introducing significantly greater uncertainty regarding both timing and magnitude.

Copper Prices Disrupted

Reporter Pan Jun Tian After a decline in early 2026, copper prices hit a new high this week. As of September 9, LME (London Metal Exchange) copper closed at USD 14,775 per ton. On September 8, LME copper stood at USD 14,779 per ton—setting a new all-time high. This round of copper price movement has been heavily influenced by U.S. copper tariff policy. During intraday trading on September 9, LME copper briefly touched USD 14,802.5 per ton—a historic peak—but then plunged sharply amid market rumors that the U.S. copper tariff policy had yet to be formally implemented. On September 10, impacted by the delayed implementation of the copper tariff policy, LME copper closed at USD 14,233 per ton. Xiao Chuankang, copper industry analyst at Shanghai Steel Union, stated that the possibility of U.S. copper tariffs being imposed has prompted a global shift of copper inventories toward the United States. Although global copper inventories are temporarily oversupplied, their geographical distribution is extremely unbalanced. Tariff-Driven Copper Siphoning Markets have long anticipated U.S. imposition of copper tariffs—a key direct driver behind the sustained copper price rally since last year. In February 2025, the U.S. launched a Section 232 investigation into copper. If the investigation concludes that copper meets the criteria for Section 232 application, the U.S. will impose import tariffs on copper. As the U.S. is a major global importer of refined copper, market participants opted to divert refined copper shipments to the U.S. for storage—thereby preemptively avoiding potential tariffs. According to data from Asian Metal, from January to July 2025, the U.S. imported a cumulative 1.076 million metric tons of refined copper—up 138.53% year-on-year from 451,000 tons in the same period of 2024. January and February saw the lowest import volumes. In August 2025, after the U.S. lifted copper tariffs, refined copper imports plummeted; although year-on-year figures still rose slightly, month-on-month volumes declined continuously. U.S. tariff policy has triggered market expectation volatility, causing fluctuations in the scale of copper inventories shipped to the U.S.—directly impacting global copper supply-demand dynamics. In 2025, global copper demand stood at approximately 28 million tons, roughly matching global copper output. Thus, absent U.S. stockpiling behavior, over one million tons of copper inventory would remain available for allocation across global markets. As of end-August this year, COMEX (Commodity Exchange, Inc.) copper inventories stood at about 760,000 tons, while LME inventories totaled around 230,000 tons—wherein COMEX stocks primarily serve the U.S. market and LME stocks serve global markets. “If we include North American inventories in total global copper inventories, the global market shows oversupply; however, if we exclude North American inventories, global copper inventories are actually undergoing a drawdown process,” Xiao Chuankang noted. Starting mid-2026, rumors re-emerged in markets about the U.S. reimposing copper tariffs, prompting renewed growth in U.S. refined copper imports. On June 30, the U.S. Department of Commerce submitted its assessment report, recommending a 15% tariff on refined copper effective January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028; the formal decision deadline falls at the end of September this year. Per the Department of Commerce’s published July import data, U.S. refined copper and copper alloy imports reached 225,000 tons—the highest monthly figure since records began in 1990. From January to July 2026, total U.S. copper imports amounted to 1.12 million tons—up 4.2% year-on-year versus the same period in 2025.

Copper Holds Drop as Traders Gauge Risks from US Tariff Policy

Oct 19, 2026

Copper prices dipped as traders assessed the likelihood of US tariffs on refined metal imports fading. Despite a 15% annual gain driven by energy transition demand, concerns over policy uncertainty and Fed rate hikes kept industrial metal prices in check.

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Copper Holds Drop as Traders Gauge Risks from US Tariff Policy

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