Metal Research Report: Fed Decision Finalized — Long-Term Logic for Precious Metals Unchanged; Copper Price Returns to Fundamentals-Based Pricing

Summary During the reporting period, COMEX precious metals declined under pressure, while COMEX copper surged then retreated, closing the week lower; the gold-copper ratio continued its downward trend. In terms of prices, the front-month COMEX gold futures contract settled at USD 4,390.0 per ounce, down 1.95% week-on-week; the front-month COMEX silver futures contract settled at USD 65.02 per ounce, down 2.69% week-on-week; and the front-month COMEX copper futures contract settled at USD 6.523 per pound, down 2.34% week-on-week—having earlier spiked near USD 6.87 per pound before sharply retreating. On the macro front, U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month—the largest single-month increase since April. Persistent inflation and elevated oil prices underpin the Federal Reserve’s maintenance of high policy rates; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.96%, hitting a new yearly high. The European Central Bank raised rates for the second time this year, reflecting synchronized tightening across major global economies’ monetary stances. On the industrial front, the White House’s decision on refined copper tariffs remains stalled, heightening market concerns over tariff non-implementation; the CL price spread continued narrowing, causing copper prices to relinquish earlier speculative premiums tied to tariff policy. Copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) fell to USD -211.50 per ton—another all-time low—indicating ongoing constraints at the mine supply level. Following the copper price correction, domestic downstream buyers significantly increased spot purchases for inventory replenishment; combined inventories across the three major exchanges edged lower, though domestic spot inventories turned slightly higher during the week. Geopolitically, the Middle East conflict has spilled into the Red Sea: Saudi energy infrastructure was attacked, and shipping risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have risen—becoming the primary source of volatility for oil prices and inflation expectations. Key Focus I. Event Highlights 1. Core Inflation Rebounds; High Interest Rates Become the New Normal Stronger-than-expected inflation data: On September 10, U.S. August PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year—above the expected 5.3% and prior reading of 4.7%; month-on-month, it rose 0.4%. Core PPI rose 4.6% year-on-year, widening from the prior 4.2%; diesel prices surged 24.1% month-on-month, contributing over one-third of the monthly increase in final-demand goods prices. On September 11, U.S. August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year—unchanged from both expectations and the prior reading—and rose 0.4% month-on-month, in line with expectations; core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month—exceeding the expected 0.2% and marking the largest monthly gain since April—while its year-on-year rate dipped from 2.5% to 2.4%, the lowest since March 2021. The above-expectation core CPI rise was primarily driven by categories including wireless telephone services and hotel accommodations; overall CPI rebound was propelled by energy prices. Yield and exchange-rate pressures: Even with short-term policy decisions now finalized, the Fed’s path is unlikely to pivot toward significant easing until inflation fully returns to the 2% target. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (4.96%) and the 2-year yield (4.63%) remain at yearly highs; the U.S. Dollar Index holds resiliently near 99, weighing on short-term valuations across the metals sector. 2. ECB Raises Rates for Second Time This Year; Global Policy Stance Synchronized Toward Tightening On September 10, the European Central Bank announced a 25-basis-point hike across its three key interest rates: the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate rose to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%, respectively—marking its second rate hike of the year.

Phoenix International Financial News Digest | Rising U.S. Inflation Boosts Fed Rate-Hike Expectations; Stronger Dollar and Easing Supply Tightness Push Copper Prices Lower

According to Bloomberg News on September 14, copper prices edged lower amid hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data, prompting traders to increase bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes. LME copper futures fell as much as 0.6%, recording their first weekly decline since June. Most other major metal contracts also declined, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and broad risk-asset weakness. Following Friday’s inflation release, traders ramped up wagers on a rate hike at this week’s Fed meeting—though lingering concerns persist regarding political pressures facing the central bank. Monetary tightening generally weighs on interest-free assets such as metals. On Monday, the spot copper premium over the three-month futures contract stood at USD 4.50 per ton—having narrowed substantially over recent weeks—indicating easing supply tightness. “With speculative long positions declining and physical tightness simultaneously easing, copper prices may trade sideways near current levels until stronger dip-buying re-emerges—or until new macroeconomic or fundamental catalysts provide clearer direction,” analysts at Sucden Financial Ltd. wrote in a report.

Copper Steadies Ahead of Fed Decision as Supply Concerns Ease

Sep 15, 2026

Copper prices stabilized on the London Metal Exchange as rising inventories eased supply squeeze fears ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Market structure signals ample supply despite previous tariff-driven volatility.

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Copper Steadies Ahead of Fed Decision as Supply Concerns Ease

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