What price levels does ANZ forecast for copper by year-end and in early 2027, and what key factors underpin this outlook?

ANZ forecasts copper prices could rise to $14,500 per ton by year-end and potentially reach $15,000 per ton in early 2027. This outlook is driven by three interlinked factors cited in the article: (1) US tariff concerns — specifically speculation about a potential levy on refined copper imports under a Trump administration — which have triggered an influx of copper into US-based warehouses, distorting global supply flows; (2) supply challenges at mines, particularly in South America, constraining output just as demand remains resilient; and (3) sustained consumption growth fueled by investment in electric vehicles and new-energy infrastructure. The analysts emphasize that tariff-driven metal flows have tightened the market outside the US, with most inventories now concentrated domestically, causing American prices to trade above London Metal Exchange (LME) levels and enabling arbitrage opportunities. As a result, LME three-month copper futures were near $14,245 per ton at the time of the report, having risen 15% year-to-date and approaching the record high set in late January.

How are US tariff concerns affecting global copper inventory distribution and pricing dynamics, according to ANZ?

According to ANZ, speculation about a potential US tariff on refined copper imports has led to 'record volumes' of copper flowing into US-based warehouses, significantly distorting the global copper balance. This surge in US inflows has curtailed available supplies within the London Metal Exchange (LME) network, tightening inventories outside the United States. As a direct consequence, US copper prices have risen above LME prices, creating arbitrage opportunities that further incentivize physical metal movement into the US. The analysts explicitly state: 'Tariff-driven metal flows into the US continue to distort the global copper balance' and note that 'Most inventories are sitting in the US, tightening the market outside.' This geographic concentration of stockpiles — driven not by fundamental demand or supply shifts but by anticipatory trade policy behavior — has amplified price divergence between regional markets and contributed to upward pressure on benchmark LME prices, which stood near $14,245 per ton at the time of the report.

Copper to Hit Record as Tariff Concerns Distort Market, ANZ Says

Sep 2, 2026

ANZ analysts forecast copper prices could reach record levels of $15,000/ton by 2027 due to US tariff distortions and supply tightness amidst rising EV demand.

bloomberg

2026-09-02

Copper to Hit Record as Tariff Concerns Distort Market, ANZ Says

Copper to Hit Record as Tariff Concerns Distort Market, ANZ Says

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