Disturbed copper prices

According to data from Asian Metal, from January to July 2025, the United States imported a cumulative total of 1.076 million metric tons of refined copper, up 138.53% year-on-year from 451,000 metric tons in the same period of 2024. Imports were lowest in January and February. Following the U.S. removal of copper tariffs in August 2025, refined copper import volumes plunged sharply; although still higher year-on-year, they declined consecutively on a month-on-month basis. U.S. tariff policy triggered market expectation volatility, causing fluctuations in copper inventory volumes shipped to the U.S., directly impacting global copper supply-demand dynamics. In 2025, global copper demand stood at approximately 28 million metric tons, roughly matching global copper output. Thus, absent U.S. stockpiling behavior, over one million metric tons of copper inventory would remain available for allocation globally. As of end-August this year, COMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) copper inventories stood at about 760,000 metric tons, while LME inventories totaled around 230,000 metric tons; COMEX copper stocks primarily serve the U.S. market, whereas LME stocks serve the global market. "If North American inventories are included in global copper stock totals, the market is oversupplied; however, excluding North America, global copper inventories are actually undergoing a drawdown process," said Xiao Chuankang. By mid-2026, rumors resurfaced in markets that the U.S. would re-impose copper tariffs, prompting renewed growth in U.S. refined copper imports. On June 30, the U.S. Department of Commerce submitted an assessment report recommending a 15% tariff on refined copper effective January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. The formal decision window falls at the end of September this year. Per the U.S. Department of Commerce’s July import data, U.S. refined copper and copper alloy imports reached 225,000 metric tons— the highest monthly volume since records began in 1990. In the first seven months of 2026, total U.S. copper imports amounted to 1.12 million metric tons, up 4.2% year-on-year versus the same period in 2025. LME copper prices surged rapidly starting in July. "Under U.S. tariff-related disruptions, cargo flows shifted toward higher-priced regions, triggering regional shortages and pushing up local prices—even precipitating so-called 'short squeezes' in certain markets," Xiao Chuankang noted. Additionally, Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions have long been a key source of volatility for global copper prices. Xiao Chuankang explained that, generally, Fed rate hikes tend to depress copper prices, while rate cuts tend to lift them. Due to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, the Fed has leaned toward hiking rates. The Fed is scheduled to hold its next monetary policy meeting next week. Macroeconomic data indicators will be pivotal in determining whether it hikes again. With U.S. August wholesale prices—released September 10 local time—surpassing expectations, markets are now pricing in a high probability of a Fed hike next week. Demand Growth Amid Supply Constraints In the short term, global copper prices are directly affected by U.S. refined copper tariff policy; over the longer term, global copper demand is gradually rising while supply faces mounting pressure. "The current primary contradiction lies in supply failing to keep pace with demand growth; cost increases provide relatively weak support for copper prices," said Li Chengbin, copper industry analyst at Shanghai Steel Union, in an interview with the Economic Observer. Per CITIC Securities data, output from major global copper mining companies declined 4.6% year-on-year in the first half of this year, marking four consecutive quarters of decline since Q3 2025.

"Metal Research Report": Fed Rate Hike Confirmed; Copper Prices Stage V-Shaped Reversal—What Lies Ahead?

Summary During the reporting period, the Federal Reserve delivered its widely anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike, halting the decline in precious metals and triggering a V-shaped reversal in copper prices; the gold-copper ratio continued its downward trend. COMEX gold futures closed at USD 4,415.9 per ounce, up 0.59% week-on-week; COMEX silver futures closed at USD 66.785 per ounce, up 2.71% week-on-week; COMEX copper futures closed at USD 6.6125 per pound, up 1.37% week-on-week—having dipped as low as USD 6.34 per pound on September 15 before rebounding steadily. On the macro front, the Fed’s FOMC meeting in the early hours of September 17 unanimously approved the 25-basis-point hike, lifting the target federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. Following the decision, U.S. Treasury yields spiked then retreated, and market risk sentiment improved. Geopolitically, easing tensions in the Middle East drove Brent crude oil prices down 6.7% week-on-week to USD 98.32 per barrel, significantly alleviating energy-driven inflation pressures. Industrially, the White House postponed its decision on refined copper tariffs (the statutory 90-day deadline falls on September 28), narrowing the CL spread (COMEX–LME) to near parity and allowing copper prices to revert to fundamentals-based pricing; copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) fell to a record low of USD -224.47 per ton, pushing spot smelting margins into negative territory; domestic social inventories hit a new annual low, spot premiums surged to around CNY 800 per ton, and pre-holiday procurement activities boosted domestic demand improvement. Key Focus Areas Event Highlights I. Fed Delivers 25-BP Hike as Expected; Dot Plot Signals One More Hike This Year On September 17, the FOMC unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first hike since July 2023. The dot plot indicates most officials anticipate one additional hike before year-end, with the median projected 2026 year-end rate raised to 4.1%. Chair Powell signaled a hawkish “inflation-first” stance. Post-decision, the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from a peak of 5.01% to 4.94%, while the U.S. Dollar Index rose to 100.22. II. Easing Middle East Tensions Reduce Oil Prices, Easing Inflation Expectations Saudi Arabia’s ceasefire proposal and U.S.–Iran negotiation signals drove Brent crude down 6.7% week-on-week to USD 98.32 per barrel, easing prior energy-inflation concerns. U.S. August retail sales rose 1.2% month-on-month—beating expectations—and initial jobless claims stood at 196,000, underscoring ongoing economic resilience. III. White House Delays Refined Copper Tariff Decision; CL Spread Narrows, Copper Prices Stage V-Shaped Reversal The White House delayed its decision on refined copper tariffs, approaching the statutory September 28 deadline; the CL spread (COMEX–LME) narrowed to under 1%, temporarily suspending arbitrage-driven U.S.–UK copper flows. After earlier tariff-related speculative premiums were fully squeezed out, SHFE copper found support at CNY 106,650 per ton and rebounded to CNY 109,620 per ton, with both COMEX and LME copper prices rallying in tandem. IV. China’s Low Inventories and Pre-Holiday Procurement Converge, Driving Sharp Rise in Spot Premiums SMM’s national copper social inventory fell to 93,400 metric tons (a new annual low), while Shanghai Steel Union’s figure dropped to 86,400 metric tons. Shanghai Grade 1 electrolytic copper premiums surged rapidly to CNY 800 per ton; Yangshan copper premium stood at USD 115 per ton. Downstream utilization rates rose week-on-week: electrolytic copper rod production at 65.82%, and cable production at 67.46%; pre-holiday procurement activities have begun, supporting fundamental improvements.

Copper Wavers Near Two-Week High as Traders Look to Fed Meeting

14 hours ago

Copper prices hovered near a two-week high of $14,447.50 per ton ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, driven by supply tightness and anticipated US tariff impacts. Market sentiment remains positive despite concerns over higher borrowing costs affecting demand.

bloomberg

2026-10-27

Copper Wavers Near Two-Week High as Traders Look to Fed Meeting

Copper Wavers Near Two-Week High as Traders Look to Fed Meeting

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