Corn prices have plummeted unreasonably—when will the decline stop? A signal has arrived!

Follow Xin Nong Guan (New Agricultural Perspective) for fresh insights into agriculture. New-crop corn harvesting has begun—and market prices are in shambles. Yet this was entirely anticipated. Still, corn prices are falling increasingly unreasonably. After the previous sharp decline in North China, another wave has hit: currently, over 1,000 trucks are arriving daily at Shandong’s deep-processing plants, sending prices tumbling precipitously. Northeast China faces an even more serious situation—prices there continue hitting new lows. At this point, many are surely anxious: At this rate, when will corn prices bottom out? Or, put another way—where exactly is the floor? I believe three factors hold the key: First, the pace of procurement. Corn price declines are nothing new—every year, prices drop sharply upon the harvest of new-crop corn, unless extreme weather severely impacts yield. This year is no exception. Although weather-related speculation was rampant earlier, we must not overlook advances in farming technology—especially substantial gains in per-unit yields. With relatively stable planting areas, the proportion of high-yield corn varieties has risen markedly, driving sustained national corn output to record highs. Does abundant supply inevitably mean falling prices? Not necessarily—there will always be fluctuations. The turning point hinges on procurement timing. Typically, newly harvested corn has high moisture content and poor storability, so farmers rush to sell, flooding the market with supply. This is precisely when major demand-side players—feed mills, starch processors, state reserves—wield pricing power. But as the saying goes, “Buy on rising prices, not falling ones.” Even though corn is cheap, buyers anticipate even lower prices—so large-scale inventory building remains limited.

How much longer will corn prices keep falling? Official news has arrived!

Whether corn prices can hold steady from here remains highly uncertain. Yet—as we’ve noted before—when near-term prospects look bleak, look to the broader, longer-term trend. Corn prices won’t fall indefinitely; they’ll eventually enter a consolidation phase before stabilizing—and that stabilization may be drawing near. Indeed, official sources recently echoed this view. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ Market Early-Warning Expert Committee recently released its October 2026 China Agricultural Commodity Supply-Demand Analysis, stating that this season’s corn crop achieved high-yield growth. While increasing market supply is exerting short-term pressure, feed-use demand remains robust, starch industry activity is improving, state reserve purchases are expected to launch soon, and sharply rising international corn prices are transmitting upward pressure—meaning domestic corn markets are likely to stabilize overall. First, the peak supply surge is already subsiding. October is traditionally the month when new-crop corn floods the market—supply peaks, and prices most easily plunge. Currently, harvesting is over 80% complete in North China and over 60% in Northeast China. Once this intense selling wave passes, remaining grain stocks at the grassroots level will dwindle month by month—relieving downward pressure on prices. Second, demand remains strong. Though official estimates lowered feed-use corn consumption by 9.4 million tons—to 201.5 million tons—industrial use was raised by 4 million tons—to 85 million tons. Overall demand is still down—but only marginally—so underlying consumption momentum persists. Third, corn’s cost-effectiveness for feed use has clearly surpassed that of wheat. This is critical: Feed use accounts for the largest share of corn demand, yet it had long been suppressed by substitutes—including wheat, targeted rice, and imported grains—squeezing corn relentlessly. Now, however, corn’s steep price drop has restored its competitive edge, and feed-use demand is quietly rebounding. Fourth, prices have fallen to multi-year lows—sparking reluctance to sell. In parts of Heilongjiang, dry-weight corn prices have dipped below 2,000 RMB/ton; at Jinzhou Port, dry corn trades between 2,145–2,160 RMB/ton—approaching production cost levels. Further downside space is genuinely limited. For two years, authorities have emphasized safeguarding reasonable returns for grain growers—while land rents, seed costs, and fertilizer prices all continue rising, adding to production expenses. Corn prices are now already below cost—unless grain is exceptionally difficult to store, few farmers would willingly work an entire year for zero profit.

Corn Faces Longest Losing Streak Since Early 2025 on Weak Demand

Oct 19, 2026

US corn futures fell for six consecutive days due to harvest pressure and weak exports, hitting their lowest since August 12 as hedge funds unwind positions. Inspections dropped nearly 50% week-on-week while total sales remain down 2.3% annually.

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Corn Faces Longest Losing Streak Since Early 2025 on Weak Demand

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