Why did Covestro upgrade its 2026 EBITDA forecast, and what was the H1 2026 EBITDA performance?

Covestro upgraded its 2026 full-year EBITDA forecast to 'significantly above last year'—revising from a prior expectation of 'a similar level'—due to a stellar first-half performance where it successfully pushed through price hikes faster than rising raw material costs. According to preliminary H1 2026 results published on 9 July, H1 EBITDA soared by 64% year-on-year to €669 million, while sales fell by 2% to €6,729 million.

What drove the surge in isocyanate prices (TDI and MDI) in early 2026, and why did they soften later in the half?

The initial surge in TDI and MDI prices was triggered by fears of supply shortages linked to the Middle East war, leading to panic buying and restocking along value chains; as ICIS reporter Zubair Adam noted, 'expectations of additional price rises triggered a wave of buying activity, with customers seeking to secure material before further increases materialized,' causing demand to exceed supply and keeping prices elevated. However, from April onward, sentiment shifted as those fears proved overblown, upstream conditions improved, and buyers grew reluctant to purchase at high prices due to weak downstream demand—leading to softer pricing toward the close of H2.