Coal Soars Like a Rainbow: When the Safety Supervision Storm Meets Indonesia’s Iron Fist, How Far Can Coal’s 'Independent Price Trend' Go?

Date CSI Coal Index Closing Price Daily Change CSI 300 Index Daily Change Relative Strength 6/1 (Mon) 2,621.21 +6.52% 4,844.26 -0.98% +7.50% 6/2 (Tue) 2,594.90 -1.00% 4,914.56 +1.45% -2.45% 6/3 (Wed) 2,688.03 +3.59% 4,938.81 +0.49% +3.10% 6/4 (Thu) 2,748.14 +2.24% 4,904.75 -0.69% +2.93% 6/5 (Fri) 2,688.12 -2.18% 4,816.92 -1.79% -0.39% 6/8 (Mon) 2,678.03 -0.38% 4,713.64 -2.14% +1.76% Based on May 30 as the baseline, the CSI Coal Index rose approximately +8.8%, while the CSI 300 fell approximately -3.7%, delivering a relative excess return of roughly +12.5 percentage points. (Source: Wind) ↑ Top-left: Daily performance comparison between CSI Coal Index and CSI 300; Top-right: Cumulative return comparison; Bottom-left: Annual returns (2016–2025); Bottom-right: Historical percentile of PE/PB valuation. (Source: Wind) At the ETF level, Guotai CSI Coal ETF (515220) posted a 20-day momentum of +15.56%; its return from May 21 to June 8 was approximately +16.72%, versus a CSI 300 momentum of roughly -3% to -5% over the same period. (Source: Wind) Extending the time horizon, since its listing in 2020, 515220 has experienced a complete bull-bear cycle: it surged to a peak of 2215 in 2022 before correcting, entered a bottoming phase in 2024–2025, and achieved a cumulative gain of over 115% over six years. The rally in 2026 builds upon a 8.77% decline in the index and a 41.8% drop in industry profits in 2025. (Source: Wind) ↑ Daily price chart of 515220’s benchmark index, from early 2020 to June 8, 2026—exhibiting a full cycle of 'rally → deep correction → consolidation and recovery → new highs'. (Source: Dongfang Choice) II. Supply Side: Triple Supply Constraints Converging The core driver behind this coal rally lies on the supply side. ① Tighter Domestic Safety Supervision — Following the methane explosion at the Qinyuan coal mine in Shanxi on May 22 (82 fatalities, 2 missing), approximately 89.3 million tons of coal production capacity in Shanxi were suspended. Safety inspection pressure spread to Inner Mongolia, Henan, and other regions, with resumption progress falling short of expectations. (Source: National Mine Safety Administration) A revised version of the 'Criteria for Identifying Major Hidden Hazards in Coal Mines' takes effect on July 1, further tightening the red line against overproduction. ② Stricter Indonesian Export Controls — On May 31, Indonesia announced that coal exports will be centrally managed by state-owned company PT Danantara Resources, with full monopoly implementation scheduled for 2027. Total annual exports could plunge by 30%–40%. (Source: Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources) Indonesia accounts for nearly 40% of global thermal coal exports (IEA). If fully implemented, this policy may systematically lift the global coal price floor.

Qianheng Smart Investment: Quadrupling in Four Days — 'The Shiniest One' Is It! Three Tailwinds Arrive, and Coal & Power Prices May Enter an Uptrend

Amid surging global temperatures, shrinking coal imports, and intensified domestic safety supervision, coal market supply-demand dynamics are poised to tighten further, potentially pushing thermal coal and coking coal prices into an upward trend. Stock performance diverged sharply this morning; Huifeng Diamond quadrupled in four days. Today (June 2), technology-themed stocks regained momentum, with concepts including CPO, optical communications, glass substrates, high-speed copper cable connectivity, advanced packaging, AI PCs, and PCBs leading gains. By midday closing, stock performance showed pronounced divergence: over 1,200 stocks rose, while over 4,100 declined. Among top gainers were Shengye Electric, Huifeng Diamond, Leishen Technology, Tianma New Materials, and Jieneng Tiehan. Huifeng Diamond (920725) stands out as one of the most eye-catching performers recently. Today, it surged 24.56% in morning trading, hitting a new all-time high. Over just four trading days, its cumulative gain reached 108.05%. Indonesian Coal Policy Tightens On June 1, coal futures markets rallied sharply: Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) coking coal futures’ front-month contract hit the daily limit during trading and closed up 7.16% at RMB 1,377/ton; coke futures’ front-month contract rose over 6% intraday and closed up 4.84% at RMB 1,993/ton. Coal futures continued modest gains today. On the news front, Indonesia’s coal export policy officially entered its transition phase. On May 31, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, announced at a press conference that the government had established PT Danantara Resources as the sole exporter for coal and other strategic natural resource commodities, aiming to strengthen national export oversight and governance via a 'single-window' mechanism. This transition began on June 1, 2026, with full implementation expected by January 2027. Indonesia is among the world’s largest thermal coal exporters, shipping over 500 million tons in 2025—roughly 50% of global trade volume. China is its largest buyer: in 2025, China imported approximately 211 million tons of coal from Indonesia, accounting for 43% of China’s total coal imports. CITIC Securities analysis suggests that Indonesia’s new coal export policy seeks to shift control over commodity exports from private enterprises to state-owned entities. Its impact on China’s coal market will primarily manifest as higher import costs and further contraction in import volumes. However, given China’s high domestic coal self-sufficiency rate—and alternative supplies from Australia, Mongolia, and others—the overall impact on nationwide coal prices is expected to remain manageable, with effects largely structural. Institutions Are Bullish on Improving Coal Market Fundamentals On May 29, at a press conference, the China Meteorological Administration announced that sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have entered El Niño conditions. This event is expected to evolve into a moderate-to-strong El Niño during summer and autumn, peaking in winter, with rising probability of a strong event; it is projected to weaken by next spring. Everbright Securities notes that as El Niño intensifies, the thermal power generation sector presents near-term investment opportunities. Huatai Securities’ research report states that recent high temperatures have driven southern China’s peak electricity load to record highs for four consecutive days—and that this year’s peak occurred nearly one month earlier than historical averages—providing catalytic support for the power sector’s market performance.

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