Gulf Beijing Investment: OPEC Monthly Report Adjusts Global Oil Demand Forecast

Persistent disruptions to Gulf shipping have introduced new risks to global oil supply, prompting OPEC to further downgrade its forecast for global oil demand growth this year. In its Tuesday monthly report, OPEC projected global oil demand growth of 180,000 barrels per day (bpd) for 2024—down from its prior forecast of 380,000 bpd. Meanwhile, its forecast for 2027 was raised from 2.36 million bpd to 2.55 million bpd, partly due to substantial inventory drawdowns requiring future replenishment. International oil prices declined on Tuesday, with the front-month crude contract falling 0.75% to $105.76 per barrel. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, driving up maritime transport costs and sustaining elevated risk premiums in the crude market. OPEC+ stated that shipping and insurance costs have surged to unprecedented levels—exceeding one-third the value of the goods transported. OPEC members’ crude output rose by 920,000 bpd month-on-month in September to 25.09 million bpd, driven primarily by increases in Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Saudi output climbed by 210,000 bpd to 8.37 million bpd. Earlier disruptions damaged part of Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline, impairing its ability to export oil via the Red Sea. Russia’s oil output fell by 38,000 bpd in September. Earlier this month, key OPEC+ members agreed to hold November production steady. Kpler data shows that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain far below previous levels. Over the past week, average daily oil flow through the strait stood at approximately 9.7 million bpd—about 43% lower than the pre-escalation level of 17.1 million bpd.

Middle East Supply Risks Support Oil Prices, While Slowing Demand Caps Upside for WTI

Moneta Markets Market Analysis, October 15: Middle East supply and shipping risks continue to support oil prices, yet weak demand and recovering supply act as counterweights. WTI remains in a relatively strong short-term rebound, though further upside requires additional momentum. Fundamental Analysis: OPEC’s latest monthly report lowered its 2024 global oil demand growth forecast from 380,000 bpd to 180,000 bpd—the sixth consecutive downward revision. High oil prices are dampening some end-user consumption, and near-term demand recovery remains sluggish. However, OPEC raised its 2027 demand growth forecast to 2.55 million bpd, largely reflecting anticipated inventory restocking needs. On the supply side, some recovery is evident: broad OPEC+ crude output rose by roughly 900,000 bpd month-on-month in September to 39.07 million bpd, with Saudi output reaching ~8.37 million bpd and Russian output declining slightly. Although increased supply from major producers helps ease market tightness, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains impaired, and tanker freight and insurance costs remain elevated—raising uncertainty over whether newly produced volumes can be smoothly exported. Meanwhile, a recent security incident occurred at Saudi Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters campus, affecting regional air and maritime transport to varying degrees. On October 11, six vessels encountered incidents in related waters; over the past week, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz dropped about 43% compared to normal levels. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser noted that global commercial crude inventories have fallen below 6 billion barrels—low inventory buffers mean that any renewed supply disruption could trigger a more pronounced price reaction. An additional bearish factor stems from rising Russian diesel supply: the U.S. Treasury issued a temporary license permitting Russia to export diesel globally until April 2027; Russian authorities anticipate monthly export volumes of 3–3.5 million tonnes by year-end. However, the actual impact hinges on export pacing and transportation capacity. Currently, the primary support for crude prices continues to stem from Middle East supply and shipping risks; thus, the incremental Russian diesel supply is more likely to influence market sentiment in the short term, rather than shift the overall oil price trajectory.

Decline in Russian Crude Output Slowed in September, OPEC Says

Oct 13, 2026

OPEC reported Russia's crude production decline slowed in September to 8.643 million barrels per day despite ongoing refinery attacks. Overseas shipments rose to 3.76 million barrels daily as producers manage supply constraints and geopolitical pressures.

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Decline in Russian Crude Output Slowed in September, OPEC Says

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