Can the G7’s release of 100 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves alleviate the diesel shortage? Saudi Arabia’s mobilization of 100,000 troops provides the answer.

If readers lack a sense of scale, consider this: Rubio previously demanded that the EU release 100 million barrels of diesel—yet the G7’s eventual commitment amounted to only 50 million barrels, revealing just how steep the discount was. Purely supply-side interventions offer the U.S. almost no effective tools to rein in domestic diesel prices. Diesel inventories across Europe and the U.S. have already hit seasonal lows; reports indicate the EU’s total stockpiles stand at merely 300 million barrels. Rubio’s demand for an immediate release of 100 million barrels from those reserves was indeed aggressive. U.S. refineries are operating near full capacity, with virtually no idle capacity remaining. Although Trump has threatened to ban diesel exports, this measure remains under study—not implementation. Given Trump’s ‘America First’ logic, had banning U.S. diesel exports resolved the domestic price surge, he would have enacted it long ago. The fact that Trump hesitates—perhaps for the following three reasons—suggests deeper complications: 1. A U.S. export ban would further destabilize international diesel markets, inevitably triggering another sharp spike in global diesel prices. Since U.S. diesel prices are tightly linked to global oil benchmarks, such a surge could paradoxically push domestic prices even higher. 2. U.S. refinery capacity is already maxed out, and the output ratio between diesel and gasoline is relatively fixed. Restricting diesel exports would depress demand—and thus production—of diesel, which would likely force refineries to cut gasoline output as well. This could exacerbate domestic gasoline price inflation. The result? A policy intended to curb diesel prices might instead inflate gasoline prices, provoking public backlash. 3. While the U.S. excels at leveraging allies—e.g., appeasing Russia to pressure Europe, or cozying up to Pyongyang to pressure Japan and South Korea—it dares not pressure America’s own oil giants. Nor does Trump possess any viable alternative leverage. Currently, EU diesel prices run about 1.5 times higher than U.S. prices. If this gap widens further, U.S. energy firms will have strong incentives to export diesel. Originally, the U.S. pressured the EU to release 100 million barrels to ease upward pressure on fuel prices—and backed that demand with threats of a U.S. diesel export ban. Yet the final outcome was a compromise: the G7 agreed to release only 50 million barrels—spread over four consecutive months—clearly timed to coincide with the U.S. midterm elections. The U.S. is now in peak harvest season. Sustained diesel price hikes would raise American farmers’ harvesting costs by 30–50%, eventually feeding into food prices and fueling longer-term inflation. A concentrated release of strategic diesel reserves may exert short-term psychological pressure on prices. But crucially, there is no visible sign of de-escalation in either the Russia-Ukraine war or the Middle East crisis. If market participants anticipate no near-term resolution, they may rush to hoard diesel during temporary price dips—thereby blunting any downward price pressure. The Russia-Ukraine war shows no signs of cooling: neither side has reached a point of desperation. Even Trump’s call for both sides to halt attacks on energy infrastructure has failed to yield consensus. Though the Iran conflict remains under U.S. leadership, even Trump—despite his mounting crises—has proven unable to resolve its core issues effectively.

A more naked betrayal than Chamberlain’s: Trump’s diesel license is the most generous gift to Russia.

After the agreement was announced, Zelenskyy immediately issued criticism—restrained, yet unmistakably furious. He stated: “Unilateral easing of sanctions against Russia, without a clear, long-term de-escalation agreement, is plainly weak.” He added: “This money will flow directly into Russia’s war machine—and Moscow will repay it with more terrorist attacks and betrayals.” He further noted: “Ukraine’s negotiation delegation is currently sitting in Florida, negotiating ceasefire terms and security guarantees with U.S. envoy Vitkov—while, at the very same time, the U.S.-Russia diesel agreement was signed. That negotiation has become nothing but a smokescreen.” He is right. Ukraine’s delegation *is* holding closed-door talks in Florida with U.S. Special Envoy Steve Vitkov on potential ceasefire terms and security assurances—believing they are negotiating their nation’s fate. Instead, those talks became a smokescreen: the U.S. unilaterally lifted diesel-related sanctions on Russia while demanding Ukraine cease fire—effectively stripping Kyiv of its key bargaining chip: using battlefield leverage to secure a bilateral ceasefire agreement. Before negotiations began, Ukraine proposed a reciprocal arrangement: Russia halts strikes on Ukrainian power grids and energy infrastructure, and Ukraine suspends drone attacks on Russian refineries. This proposal offered a viable path forward—neither side targeting the other’s heating or lighting systems. Yet the Trump administration ignored it. On the very day the diesel agreement was announced, it publicly demanded Ukraine stop attacking Russian energy facilities—and blamed Ukraine’s drones for global diesel shortages and high inflation. Today, Trump has revived the old refrain, pressuring Zelenskyy to resign. A Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll conducted in October showed that 75% of Ukrainians support ending the war through diplomatic negotiations, while 21% oppose any form of compromise. The overwhelming majority reject a so-called ‘imposed peace’ that would require surrendering sovereignty or undermining national security. Clearly, Ukrainians have desired peace for four years and eight months—but what they refuse is a specific kind of peace: one where their cities keep getting bombed while others’ oil tankers roll freely out of port. Faced with America’s backstabbing, the most common reaction across Ukrainian society is not protest—but silence. An elderly man sleeping overnight in a Kyiv metro station told a journalist: “We’ve grown accustomed to being bombed—but not to being sold.” This sentiment echoes in kitchens across Kherson, Kharkiv, and Dnipro, voiced by every Ukrainian. IV Natalia doesn’t grasp the human cost embedded in the figure of 4.8 million tons stipulated in the U.S.-Russia agreement. She only knows that last month, a boy from her neighbor’s family picked up a fragment of a drone in the yard—the edge charred black, like scorched tree bark. To give that number weight, I’ll calculate its real-world toll—not for Natalia (she likely wouldn’t understand), but for readers, through this true story. In 2025, Russia’s GDP growth is projected at roughly 1%, down from 3–4% in the prior two years. Its central bank’s key interest rate has remained locked at 21% from October 2024 through June 2025—effectively cutting businesses off from credit. In January 2026, VAT will rise from 20% to 22%, marking the first time wartime taxation reaches ordinary consumers. Oil-and-gas revenues in 2025 are expected to total ~8.5 trillion rubles—down ~24% from 2024. For years, such revenues have accounted for over 30% of the federal budget. The National Welfare Fund holds only around $50 billion in truly liquid, deployable assets. Defense spending has surged from ~$66 billion pre-war to ~$149 billion—now consuming over 40% of the federal budget. Cumulative military casualties through 2025 stand at approximately 1.2 million.

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