Dow's Q3 2025 Earnings Report (October 27, 2025)

The stock price has been depressed for a full year—falling two tiers. After the Q3 2025 earnings release, it surged 13%. Has there been any fundamental change? ・First, revenue was weak: the Q2 guidance for this quarter stood at $10.2 billion. ・Second, GAAP EPS turned positive only due to two non-recurring items; operating profit failed to cover interest expenses. ・On the positive side, the loss was narrower than expected—the company’s cost-cutting and capital expenditure reductions have proven effective. Has the chemical industry reached a downward inflection point? ・On the supply side, Dow believes capacity restraint is now underway across all regions—including China: 'We've got speculation on the closures of about 13 million metric tons from a combination of additional capacity in Asia, Japan and Korea to the tune of about 5 million tons and China from the [anti-evolution] policies to the tune of about 7 million tons.' ・On the demand side, Dow sees overall demand remaining weak—unchanged from last quarter. It hopes rate cuts will stimulate construction starts.

Q3 2024 Performance of 21 Chemical Enterprises! Dow, Wacker, Wanhua, Sinopec, CNOOC, etc.

In Q3 2024, the Group’s total revenue amounted to €6.76 billion, an increase of 3.3% year-on-year. All business segments posted growth during this period: large industrial revenue rose 2.8%; industrial distributor business grew 1.7%; electronics increased 5.9%; and healthcare climbed 9.2%. By region: Americas’ gas and services revenue totaled €2.56 billion, contributing an 8.2% growth; Asia’s growth was less robust but still up 4.1% year-on-year to €1.34 billion; Middle East & Africa revenue rose 1.1% to €296 million; Europe was the only region with declining sales—revenue fell 1.5% year-on-year to €2.25 billion. Air Products: Q3 2024 sales totaled $3.0 billion, down 2% year-on-year. GAAP net income was $709 million, up 16% year-on-year. GAAP net income margin stood at 23.7%, up 260 basis points year-on-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.3 billion, up 5% year-on-year. Adjusted EPS was $3.20—exceeding prior expectations—and up 7% year-on-year. Akzo Nobel: Q3 2024 organic sales rose 1% driven by higher volumes; reported sales declined 3%; operating profit was €259 million (€354 million in Q3 2023); adjusted EBITDA was €394 million (€414 million in Q3 2023); adjusted EBITDA margin was 14.8% (15.1% in Q3 2023); net cash generated from operating activities was €294 million (€297 million in Q3 2023). Dow: Q3 2024 net sales totaled $10.9 billion (approx. RMB 77.7 billion), up 1% year-on-year, driven by higher sales in the U.S. and Canada. Sales were flat sequentially. Volumes rose 1% year-on-year, led by the Functional Materials & Coatings operating segment; volumes rose 1% sequentially, driven by gains in Packaging & Specialty Plastics and Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure. GAAP net income was $240 million. Operating EBIT was $641 million—up $15 million year-on-year—primarily due to improved overall margins in the Packaging & Specialty Plastics operating segment. EPS was $0.30; operating EPS was $0.47, compared to $0.48 in Q3 2023 and $0.68 in the prior quarter. Honeywell: Q3 2024 sales reached $9.7 billion (approx. RMB 69.1 billion), up 6% year-on-year; organic sales rose 3%, primarily driven by strong performance in defense & aerospace, commercial aviation, and building solutions. Operating income declined 4%, and operating margin contracted 180 basis points to 19.1%, mainly due to impairment losses arising from classifying the personal protective equipment (PPE) business as assets held for sale.