What is the current situation with the U.S. stock market, which is rising against the odds?

Let’s talk today about the U.S. stock market’s counter-trend rally. The Nasdaq has hit a new all-time high; the S&P 500 has been consolidating near record highs for several months—despite high oil prices, rising yields, and unresolved geopolitical tensions, U.S. equities have held firm. Yields and oil prices will continue testing how long the market can sustain these elevated levels. If U.S. stocks keep climbing, AI-related stocks will likely lead the charge—this is quite plausible. Conversely, if yields and oil prices decline, small-cap stocks and rate-sensitive equities stand to gain significantly more upside. Let’s break them down one by one: S&P 500: It has traded sideways for nine weeks, with price volatility steadily shrinking and volume providing solid support. In the past ten weeks, eight ended in gains. The index remains above both its 10-week and 20-week moving averages—indicating consistent buyer participation. Nasdaq 100: It just posted a new all-time high on a weekly closing basis. Historically speaking, hitting a new all-time high is often followed by further highs. Recently, numerous headwinds have emerged—but prices have never collapsed. Beneath QQQ lies a gap at 720 points, yet in a strong uptrend, such gaps aren’t necessarily filled.

#Market Recap for March 4, 2026 (U.S. Trading Day): All Three Major Indices Closed Higher; Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index +0.8%

On Wednesday, Eastern Time, U.S. equities rebounded from two consecutive days of sharp volatility, buoyed by stabilizing oil prices and positive economic data. At market close: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.14 points (+0.49%) to 48,739.41; the Nasdaq Composite gained 290.79 points (+1.29%) to 22,807.48; and the S&P 500 advanced 52.87 points (+0.78%) to 6,869.50. Most mega-cap tech stocks closed higher: Amazon rose 3.88%, Tesla +3.44%, Meta +1.93%, NVIDIA +1.66%, Microsoft +0.22%, while Alphabet (GOOGL) dipped 0.15% and Apple fell 0.47%. AI application software stocks strengthened: AppLovin surged over 10%, Palantir rose over 4%. Moderna jumped nearly 16% after reaching a settlement with Genevant and Arbutus, resolving patent litigation concerning core mRNA technology used in its COVID-19 vaccine—and clearing legal uncertainty. Investors are optimistic about its cancer vaccine pipeline. Ross Stores soared over 8% after reporting quarterly earnings and revenue that exceeded analyst expectations—and signaling it will enter 2026 with ‘solid momentum.’ Rising oil prices boosted petrochemical stocks: Dow Chemical rose 5.2%, and LyondellBasell gained 6.4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 0.8%: NIO climbed 5.5%; Pony.ai, WeRide, and Xiaomi each rose over 4%; New Oriental gained 2.7%; XPeng, NetEase, Tencent, and Meituan each rose over 1%. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 2.69 basis points to 4.0862%, gaining a cumulative 14.88 basis points over the past three trading days. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 2.49 basis points to 4.0843%. COMEX gold futures rose 0.5% to $5,149.20 per ounce; COMEX silver futures edged up 0.15% to $83.60 per ounce. International crude oil futures settled nearly unchanged: WTI crude for April delivery rose 0.13% to $74.66 per barrel; Brent crude for May delivery was flat at $81.40 per barrel. Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic activity grew at a modest-to-moderate pace across most U.S. regions, though sales remained subdued and inflation pressures were mild. The Fed’s Beige Book reported that economic activity expanded at a modest-to-moderate pace across most U.S. districts in recent weeks—yet an increasing number of districts noted flat or declining activity. In many districts, heightened economic uncertainty, rising price sensitivity, and reduced spending by low-income consumers continued to weigh on sales performance.

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