Dow's Q3 2025 Earnings Report (October 27, 2025)

The stock price has been depressed for a full year—falling two tiers. After the Q3 2025 earnings release, it surged 13%. Has there been any fundamental change? ・First, revenue was weak: the Q2 guidance for this quarter stood at $10.2 billion. ・Second, GAAP EPS turned positive only due to two non-recurring items; operating profit failed to cover interest expenses. ・On the positive side, the loss was narrower than expected—the company’s cost-cutting and capital expenditure reductions have proven effective. Has the chemical industry reached its downward inflection point? ・On the supply side, Dow believes capacity restraint is now underway across all regions—including China: “We’ve got speculation on the closures of about 13 million metric tons—from a combination of additional capacity in Asia, Japan and Korea to the tune of about 5 million tons, and China from the [anti-evolution] policies to the tune of about 7 million tons.” ・On the demand side, Dow sees overall demand remaining weak—unchanged from last quarter. It hopes rate cuts will stimulate construction starts.

Which U.S. stock is worth buying—and why?

Verizon: A critical but highly leveraged telecom giant Verizon is one of the leading U.S. telecommunications companies, with a stable customer base, an attractive dividend yield of 6.3%, and a track record of raising dividends for 20 consecutive years. The drawback? Its annual dividend growth rate over that period has averaged only about 2%. Why? Intense market competition compels the company to make large, sustained capital investments to maintain competitiveness. Moreover, the U.S. telecom market is nearing saturation, so growth relies largely on modest price increases. As a result, Verizon carries the highest debt ratio among U.S. telecom peers—a factor that not only heightens risk but may also constrain future growth. While its high dividend is appealing, investors must closely monitor its financial health. Dow: A stable—but growth-challenged—chemicals company Since the 2019 DowDuPont spin-off, Dow Chemical has paid a quarterly dividend of $0.70, yielding approximately 5.4%. The downside? Limited dividend growth potential. As a downstream player in the energy sector, Dow faces volatile input and finished-product prices—leading to pronounced swings in revenue and profitability. To ensure sustainability across economic cycles, Dow sets its dividend at a relatively conservative, maintainable level. Thus, despite its high yield, this stock may not suit most income-oriented investors. Chevron: An integrated energy company resilient to industry volatility Chevron is one of the world’s largest integrated oil & gas companies, with operations spanning upstream, midstream, and downstream segments—helping to dampen the impact of price fluctuations. It has raised its dividend for 37 consecutive years and currently offers a dividend yield of 4.24%. Its balance sheet remains robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of just 0.15. Thanks to its low leverage, Chevron retains the flexibility to borrow during periods of low oil prices—ensuring uninterrupted operations and dividend payments.

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