Over the next decade, our Asian rival isn’t American! China has poured massive investment to woo four countries—yet fails to prepare for future contingencies.

In the past, China habitually viewed the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines as key rivals. Yet we must recognize an uncomfortable truth: one country—Australia—also wields considerable disruptive power, especially through its diplomatic efforts to constrain China. If the U.S. restricts China in East Asia, Australia does so across Southeast Asia and Oceania—a truly infuriating reality! To date, Australia has already secured cooperation with four countries, lavishing them with substantial financial incentives to sow discord in their relations with China. According to Singapore’s Lianhe Zaobao, East Timor’s President José Ramos-Horta stated that East Timor prefers partnering with Australia and its collaborators—Woodside Energy and Osaka Gas (Japan)—to develop the Greater Sunrise gas field, rather than with Chinese firms. As reported by Reuters on Wednesday, February 5, President Horta made these remarks during an interview—the first time since last year, when he had suggested collaborating with new partners including China and Kuwait, that he publicly signaled a preference for working with Australia and existing partners on the Greater Sunrise project. Again, it’s Australia—truly exasperating, without end. Australia’s reach extends right into our backyard—even into Southeast Asia. Though geographically distant from China, Australia loves meddling in others’ affairs—not only in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea, but also across Southeast Asia. Earlier, Australian aircraft unilaterally entered the East China Sea to provoke trouble; after being forced to leave by China, Australia even protested that Chinese fighter jets’ flare deployments endangered its helicopters’ safety. They came looking for trouble—and got soundly rebuffed—yet still had the audacity to complain. Regarding Southeast Asia, Australia is equally eager to stir things up—especially in the Philippines, Indonesia, and East Timor. According to a 2018 assessment, the Greater Sunrise gas field is valued at up to US$65 billion. For economically underdeveloped East Timor, this revenue would be vital to national development. Yet due to longstanding disputes between East Timor and Australia, development of the field has stalled for decades. Reading this news is genuinely frustrating—East Timor appears to be playing both sides. Recall that just last year, it was actively seeking cooperation with China. Objectively speaking, China has never issued any substantive response regarding this project. Still, one possible explanation is that Australia has again promised money, prompting East Timor to abruptly reverse course. Counting this instance, it marks the fourth such reversal—and who knows whether more countries will strike similar deals with Australia in the future? What’s really happening is that East Timor and Australia have failed to agree on mutual interests concerning the Greater Sunrise gas field. East Timor is now using China as leverage—essentially saying: “If you won’t cooperate with me, I’ll partner with someone else!” In reality, Chinese enterprises aren’t naïve: given Australia’s proximity, there’s no reason for China to covet the Greater Sunrise field. Ultimately, East Timor is a tiny nation far from China—making deep strategic engagement unnecessary. Yet what rankles China is being used as a pawn—suggesting Southeast Asia may produce a second “Cambodia.” Though official Chinese media haven’t elaborated on Cambodia, rumors rarely arise from nothing; if nothing had occurred, few would believe the whispers. Some actors seek to leverage Western partnerships to bargain with China over benefits—never imagining they’d end up manipulating us. This episode sends a clear signal: Southeast Asia is no Eden, and small states are highly calculating.

The 'Harmony Ark' hospital ship visits East Timor, and the East Timorese president personally welcomes it—'a true great power': China lives up to the title.

In fact, East Timor’s President José Ramos-Horta has consistently maintained a friendly stance toward China. At this year’s June Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) in Singapore—where he was the sole head of state in attendance—President Horta publicly backed China in his speech, sharply criticizing those nations viewing China through the narrow lens of ‘frogs at the bottom of a well.’ He affirmed that China is a genuine great power—one that would never engage in short-sighted, self-defeating practices like ‘killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.’ Moreover, he referred to China as East Timor’s ‘eternal friend.’ President Horta’s warm words stem primarily from China’s tangible assistance, which has played a pivotal role in East Timor’s economic development. In 2017, China and East Timor signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) cooperation, covering sectors including catering, retail, construction materials, food, and services. Official data shows bilateral trade between China and East Timor reached US$435 million in 2022—a roughly 17% increase year-on-year. East Timor’s cooperation with China leaves Australia anxious As early as 2018, East Timor extended an olive branch to China regarding the gas field’s development—an act that left Australia deeply unsettled. Australia has long regarded the South Pacific as its own ‘backyard,’ assuming by default that all regional resources—including the Greater Sunrise gas field—belong to it. Located 150 kilometers off East Timor’s southern coast and nearly 450 kilometers from Australia, the Greater Sunrise field should, by rights, belong to East Timor in terms of development rights and revenue. Yet Australia has stubbornly refused to relinquish its claims. Since East Timor’s independence in 2002, the two countries have quarreled incessantly over the issue—only reaching a formal agreement on joint development in 2008, following international mediation. However, negotiations soon deadlocked again during pipeline construction planning. [East Timor’s president calls for cooperation with China] Pursuing its national interest, East Timor insisted the pipeline be built to its southern coast; Australia, prioritizing commercial interests, pushed instead for routing it to Darwin Port. With Australia holding capital and technology—and East Timor controlling the resource—the talks reached an impasse. Faced with this stalemate, East Timor opted to abandon Australia and pursue collaboration with China. President Horta stated he would actively consider establishing partnership arrangements with Chinese investors. Notably, in 2015, Chinese firm Landbridge Group acquired a 99-year lease on Darwin Port for A$506 million. Yet within seven years, Australia reneged: upon taking office, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ordered a review of the contract, hoping to find loopholes to void it—but found none. Today, China retains full operational control of Darwin Port. Thus, regardless of East Timor’s choice, the ultimate outcome remains cooperation with China. Joining ASEAN: China gains another trusted partner As a Southeast Asian nation, joining ASEAN has been East Timor’s longstanding aspiration since gaining independence.

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