What conditions does ECB's Primoz Dolenc say would justify pausing rate hikes at the ECB's next meeting?

According to Dolenc, a pause in July could be warranted if energy costs remain near current levels, commodity-market gyrations do not spread further, and second-round inflationary effects do not appear. He explicitly stated, 'I do not believe there is any urgency to consider further policy tightening if oil and gas prices remain subdued,' and added that 'a wait-and-see approach until September could be appropriate' based on current data.

How does Dolenc assess the current geopolitical situation and its implications for ECB policy?

Dolenc acknowledged that hostilities have resumed in recent days and emphasized that 'the conflict will not be resolved anytime soon,' leading to persistently elevated uncertainty. While he noted hopes for a lasting resolution, he cautioned that the geopolitical backdrop has not fully calmed, underscoring the need for vigilance and flexibility in monetary policy decisions given the potential for rapid changes in circumstances.

ECB's Dolenc Sees No Urgency to Hike Rates if Energy Markets Stay Calm

Jun 30, 2026

ECB Governing Council member Primoz Dolenc stated there is no urgency to raise interest rates if oil and gas prices remain subdued. He suggested a wait-and-see approach until September, citing potential impacts from Middle East conflicts on energy costs and inflation.

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