What is ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras's current view on the likelihood of another interest-rate hike after June's increase?

Stournaras sees a smaller likelihood of further rate hikes, stating that the unexpectedly large fall in energy prices and slowing euro-zone inflation—evidenced by the 'big downside surprise' of consumer-price gains easing to 2.8%—suggest the ECB may not need to add to June’s rate increase; he explicitly said, 'I don’t think anything will happen in July, unless the situation changes dramatically,' and added, 'As I see things now, it’s perhaps good to stay where we are for some time.'

According to Stournaras, what key factors are influencing the ECB’s decision-making on future monetary policy, beyond headline inflation?

Stournaras highlighted two key non-headline factors: first, how firms pass on energy cost changes—warning that while price increases are rapidly transmitted to consumers, declines are not, due to lack of competition or excess demand (as in Greece); second, the macroeconomic impact of the AI investment boom, particularly its effect on import prices for electronics from Korea and Taiwan.

ECB’s Stournaras Sees Smaller Likelihood of Further Rate Hike

Jul 1, 2026

ECB official Yannis Stournaras cited falling energy prices and easing inflation as reasons to pause interest rate hikes. He noted recovering oil supplies from Iran but warned that cost pass-through remains a concern for European firms.

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ECB’s Stournaras Sees Smaller Likelihood of Further Rate Hike

ECB’s Stournaras Sees Smaller Likelihood of Further Rate Hike

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