Profit warnings flood in—European and U.S. auto stocks crash

On Monday, Stellantis issued a profit warning. The conglomerate—whose portfolio includes Peugeot, Citroën, Opel, Fiat, and Chrysler—significantly lowered its full-year margin forecast, citing the need to cut production and increase promotional spending amid a slowing and increasingly competitive automotive market. In a statement released today, the company said its adjusted operating profit margin for this year will narrow to between 5.5% and 7%, down by double digits from its prior guidance. Stellantis now also expects industrial free cash flow to range from negative €5 billion (US$5.6 billion) to negative €10 billion—reversing its earlier forecast of positive cash flow. Additionally, the company anticipates cutting production by 200,000 vehicles in the second half of the year to meet sales targets—a reduction twice as large as originally planned. Market anxiety flared up, sending Stellantis’ share price plunging over 14%, hitting an intraday low not seen since December 2022. British automaker Aston Martin also revised its full-year outlook downward, with its stock falling 23% today—the largest single-day drop since May 1—and down 37% year-to-date. Japanese automotive giant Toyota saw its shares decline 7.6% today. Bad news from Europe’s auto sector continued to pile up. This month, Germany’s three largest automakers—Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW—each issued profit warnings. On the 20th, Mercedes-Benz revised its 2024 earnings guidance, forecasting this year’s EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) to be “significantly below” last year’s level; its stock plunged nearly 8% intraday. On the 28th, Volkswagen further lowered its profit expectations, with its share price dropping nearly 4%. BMW Group had already cut its full-year profit forecast to 6% on the 10th, down from its previous range of 8%–10%. Chinese automakers buck the trend, with nine stocks hitting daily trading limits While European automakers sink deep into a quagmire of profit warnings and their share prices tumble sharply, Chinese auto stocks are surging against the tide—delivering an outstanding performance amid broad gains across China’s A-share market. On September 30, buoyed by a strong rally across the A-share market, 28 A-share-listed auto-related stocks rose collectively. Among them, AutoTech, CIMC Vehicles, Lifan Technology, Great Wall Motors, Jiangling Motors, JAC Motors, ZOTYE Auto, Seres Group, and BAIC BluePark all hit their daily trading limits (10% upward cap). Other companies gaining more than 8% included King Long, Sinomach Automobile, Changan Automobile, Zhongtong Bus, Dongfeng Co., Ankai Bus, and BYD. Firms posting gains between 6% and 8% included Haima Automobile, SAIC Motor, FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, China Automotive Technology & Research Center, Jinbei Automobile, GAC Group, Yutong Bus, China Railway Materials, and China National Heavy Duty Truck.

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Includes: Semiconductors, Hardware, Utilities, a small portion of Software, and Others (as of December 4; subject to dynamic updates). Winners/Losers for FY25 are continuously tracked; the Phase 3 stock selection pool will also be updated later. 1. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment ・Winners: CRDO (surged on December 3), ARM, TSM, MRVL ・Losers: INTC, ACLS, GFS, LSCC 2. Hardware & Equipment ・Winners: COHR, ANET, LITE, GLW ・Losers: Samsung Electronics (a disastrous earnings report), LFUS 3. Utilities ・Winners: VST, CEG, NRG, ETN, PEG ・Loser: AES (only one) 4. Software + Others ・Winners: Palantir (unquestionably), VRT (one of only two DeSPAC deals under Goldman Sachs), ORCL ・Losers: DBRG

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