Forecast of the crude oil market trend in 2026

Supply growth from non-OPEC countries also faces challenges: • Canada: Oil sands projects entail high production costs, offering limited economic viability at oil prices of USD 70–80 per barrel. • Brazil: Deepwater field development has long lead times; new output cannot come online in the short term. • Norway and the UK: Mature fields suffer severe natural decline, while new project investments remain insufficient. Overall, global crude oil supply growth in 2026 will be constrained, with an annual growth rate projected at only ~1.2%, far below the 2.5% average over the past five years. 2.2 Demand Side: Low-Growth Trajectory and Structural Transformation 2.2.1 Slowing Global Demand Growth Global crude oil demand growth has clearly decelerated: • Slower economic growth: The IMF forecasts global GDP growth of approximately 2.8% in 2026—below the average for 2023–2024. This slowdown directly dampens energy demand. • Accelerating energy transition: Penetration rates of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) are rising rapidly across major economies. China’s NEV penetration exceeds 40%; Europe’s exceeds 35%; and the U.S.’s exceeds 20%. This exerts long-term downward pressure on gasoline demand. • Improving energy efficiency: Energy efficiency continues to improve across industrial and transport sectors, with energy consumption per unit of GDP declining annually by ~2–3%. The IEA forecasts global oil demand growth in 2026 at just 850,000 barrels per day—well below the pre-pandemic average of 1.2–1.5 million barrels per day. 2.2.2 Regional Demand Divergence Regional demand patterns show marked divergence: • China: As the world’s largest crude oil importer, China’s demand performance is critical. In 2026, China faces some restocking needs—particularly for rebuilding strategic reserves—which may support near-term demand. Long-term, however, China’s crude oil demand growth has slowed from 5–7% annually to 2–3%. • India: India remains one of the few economies sustaining robust demand growth, with a projected 2026 demand growth rate of around 4–5%, making it the primary engine of global oil demand growth. • Europe: Under dual pressures from energy transition and geopolitical tensions, European crude oil demand is expected to decline by 1–2%. • United States: With rising EV adoption and improving energy efficiency, U.S. crude oil demand has entered a plateau phase and is projected to remain essentially flat in 2026. 2.3 Inventory and Trade Pattern Shifts 2.3.1 Global Inventory Cycle Global crude oil inventories stand at a pivotal turning point: • OECD commercial inventories: Currently around 2.7 billion barrels—near historical averages. However, amid escalating geopolitical conflict, countries may accelerate strategic reserve replenishment, providing short-term demand support. • China’s strategic reserves: China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is estimated to retain roughly 100 million barrels of replenishment capacity—a key demand-support factor for 2026. 2.3.2 Restructuring of Trade Flows The Strait of Hormuz crisis is reshaping global crude oil trade flows: • Middle East supply substitution: Some importers are shifting toward alternative sources—including the U.S., Brazil, and West Africa—but supply capacity and logistical constraints in these regions mean adjustments will take time. • Surging freight rates: Average voyage distances for alternative routes have increased by 50–100%, sharply raising shipping costs—and thereby pushing up landed prices.

War-induced windfall profits have once again made major oil companies targets of attack

Due to the war, U.S. gasoline prices briefly surged above USD 4 per gallon—triggering warnings of a potential recession unless the conflict is resolved swiftly. President Trump himself singled out major oil companies as culprits behind soaring fuel prices, accusing the industry of price manipulation and ordering a federal investigation. “Major oil companies have not lowered retail gasoline prices in line with the steep drop in what they pay for crude oil—which is plummeting! In other words, consumers are being ‘ripped off,’” Trump wrote on Truth Social at the end of June 2026. “I have directed the Department of Justice to immediately begin investigating this matter—the price of gasoline should fall much faster than I am seeing right now!” In a series of related warnings, the U.S. president added: “Gasoline retailers must lower prices immediately! Given that crude oil prices have already fallen to USD 68 per barrel—and continue falling—their current prices are simply too high. Retailers must respond promptly to this statement and act as they see fit to cut prices for our great American people!” In the same Truth Social post, Trump further instructed fuel retailers to “set prices at approximately USD 2.50 per gallon.” The oil industry naturally explained that it does not wield full pricing power at the retail fuel level—where prices closely track, though do not perfectly mirror, international crude benchmarks. A recent column in Energy Intelligence cited Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries as an illustrative case: such attacks reduced diesel and jet fuel exports from one of the world’s top exporters, prompting U.S. refiners to boost domestic diesel and jet fuel production and exports. The column noted that increasing diesel and jet fuel output inevitably reduces gasoline output—thereby pushing up gasoline prices. Nonetheless, war-induced volatility continues to exert upward pressure on energy commodity prices—while producers of those commodities reap windfall gains. If anything, this is not their fault—but they have once again become convenient political targets, precisely because they make such highly visible scapegoats. According to estimates by analysts at the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), cited by Reuters in early July 2026, ExxonMobil is expected to report adjusted net income of USD 15.9 billion for Q2, while Chevron’s earnings are projected to approach USD 10 billion—both representing more than a threefold increase over their Q1 profits. The Financial Times, reporting for the week ending July 12, 2026, cited similar figures: Exxon reported Q2 net income of USD 19 billion, and Chevron reported USD 9.7 billion—both more than triple their Q1 results. These extraordinary profits place the two giants in direct confrontation with a U.S. president who, during his campaign, pledged to transform America into a globally dominant energy power—with the help of these very supermajors. Refineries, too, are under fire: citing FactSet data, the Financial Times reported that Marathon Petroleum is expected to announce its highest quarterly profit in four years, while Valero Energy—a major refining competitor—is also set to report exceptionally strong results—certainly provoking further anger from the White House.

Ecovyst Lifts 2026 Profit Outlook as Refinery Demand Holds Firm

4 days ago

Ecovyst Inc raised its full-year 2026 profit outlook, projecting adjusted EBITDA between $208 million and $212 million. Strong third-quarter sales growth was driven by robust refinery utilization and increased demand for sulfuric acid.

BigGo Finance

2026-01-02

Technip completes acquisition of Ecovyst advanced materials, catalysts business

2026-02-26

Ecovyst beats estimates on stronger sulfuric acid volumes

2026-03-04

Symrise Expects Further Organic Sales Growth Despite 2025 Earnings Decline

2026-04-03

OCP reports strong revenue growth amid robust global phosphate demand

2026-04-04

Ecovyst Inc Reports Q4 Earnings Beat, Highlights Refinery & Sulfuric Acid Growth