According to the EIA, what is the projected level of OECD oil inventories in December, and why is this significant?

The EIA projects that OECD oil inventories will fall to below 2.3 billion barrels in December — the lowest level since it began compiling such data in 2003. This historic low is attributed to supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict, particularly the anticipated prolonged reduction in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz until early 2027, forcing reliance on inventory drawdowns to offset a daily loss of 11 million barrels of production from the region.

What does the EIA forecast for Brent crude oil prices in June and July, and what factor underpins this forecast?

The EIA forecasts the average spot price for Brent crude oil to reach $105 per barrel in June and July. This upward price pressure is directly linked to the rapid depletion of global crude oil inventories — driven by the need to compensate for the 11-million-barrel-per-day production shortfall from the Middle East — which the agency says lays the foundation for sharp near-term price increases.

EIA: Global Crude Oil Inventories Projected to Reach 23-Year Low

Jun 15, 2026

OECD oil stocks are set to fall to 2003 lows due to Middle East disruptions, according to EIA. Brent crude prices are forecast to reach $105 per barrel in mid-year despite a minor demand drop.

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