Nasdaq Has Spanned the Globe for 55 Years

2022: The Heavy Hammer of Rate Hikes In 2022, the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 33.10%, closing at 10,466 points—the worst annual performance since 2008. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times in 2022, lifting the federal funds rate from 0–0.25% to 4.25–4.50%. Rising interest rates dealt a fatal blow to growth stocks—whose valuations rely heavily on discounted future cash flows. The higher the interest rate, the lower the present value of those distant cash flows. Nasdaq’s tech stocks, trading at P/E ratios of dozens or even over one hundred times earnings, bore the brunt. In the first half of 2022, the Nasdaq fell 29.74%, marking its worst-ever first-half performance. Its intraday low on June 16 was 10,565. From its November 2021 peak of 16,057 to the June 2022 trough, the index dropped over 34%. Yet unlike the dot-com bubble, this decline did not destroy corporate fundamentals. Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon continued to grow revenues—albeit at a slower pace. The market punished valuations, not intrinsic value. The AI Wave: NVIDIA and a New Surge In 2023, the Nasdaq-100 surged 53.81%—its strongest annual performance since 2009. The broader Composite rose 43.42%, closing at 15,011 points. The sole driving force behind this rally was AI. ChatGPT launched in November 2022, triggering a global large-model boom in 2023. NVIDIA’s GPUs became the ‘hard currency’ of AI training—demand vastly outstripping supply. NVIDIA’s share price soared from $140 at the start of 2023 to $495 by year-end—a 253% gain. One company alone contributed significantly to the Nasdaq-100’s ascent. In 2024, the AI frenzy continued. The Nasdaq Composite rose 28.64%, closing at 19,310 points. On December 11, it breached 20,000 points for the first time. NVIDIA’s market capitalization surpassed $3 trillion, briefly overtaking Apple as the world’s most valuable company. In 2025, the Nasdaq Composite closed at 23,241 points, up 20.36% for the year. The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) closed at 30,660.60 on June 2, 2026, hitting an intraday record high of 30,762.20. The impact of AI on the Nasdaq bears an uncanny resemblance to the internet’s impact decades earlier: a revolutionary technological concept igniting massive market enthusiasm and propelling index gains. Yet a crucial difference exists this time—the commercialization path for AI is far clearer. NVIDIA’s GPUs are being sold in real volume; Microsoft’s Copilot has real paying users; Amazon’s AWS AI services generate real revenue. A bubble? Perhaps. But this time, the bubble contains genuine hard cash. 2026: Tokenization and 24-Hour Trading On March 18, 2026, the SEC approved Nasdaq’s proposal to allow tokenized settlement for certain equities—the first integration of blockchain technology into the settlement infrastructure of a major U.S. exchange. In the second half of 2026, Nasdaq plans to launch a 24-hour, five-day-per-week trading regime. Both moves point in the same direction: Nasdaq is transforming from “America’s weekday exchange” into “the world’s never-sleeping exchange.”

Bank of America’s Hartnett: Materials Will Be the Next ‘Bull Market Darling’

Meanwhile, he notes that U.S. equities have delivered an annualized return of 20%, while gold has posted an annualized gain of 30%. Historically, such a dual bull market has occurred only during wartime, peacetime, bubbles, and stagflation—often signaling the accumulation of deep structural risks. Equity-Gold Dual Bull Market Signals Coexisting 'Bubble Stagflation' Hartnett observes that U.S. equities are on track for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains, with an annualized return of approximately 20%; gold, meanwhile, has also posted roughly 30% annualized gains—its fourth straight year of double-digit appreciation. He notes that four consecutive years of double-digit equity returns have occurred historically only during wartime (1942–1945), peacetime (1949–1952), and bubble eras (1995–1999); Four consecutive years of double-digit gold gains, by contrast, have occurred only during stagflation periods (1971–1974 and 1977–1980). Their simultaneous occurrence leads Hartnett to characterize the current environment as 'bubble-style war-and-peace叠加 stagflation' (a fusion of bubble-driven dynamics amid geopolitical tension and peace, overlaid with stagflationary pressures). At the macro level, Hartnett observes that, for the first time since November 2023, advanced-market central banks have collectively tightened monetary policy faster than they’ve eased. Meanwhile, although emerging markets remain in a net easing cycle, the gap between easing and tightening has narrowed to its smallest since August 2023. He further points out that the NYSE Composite Index—which he views as Wall Street’s best barometer—is facing technical resistance from a 'double-top' formation in the coming weeks, an 'important signal' that central banks are rapidly turning hawkish in response to nominal economic exuberance. The 'Bubble Barbell' Strategy: Materials as the Optimal Pairing Hartnett proposes a 'Bubble Barbell' strategy framework: simultaneously going long both 'frenzied assets' and 'shunned assets'. The former includes today’s AI and semiconductor themes; the latter comprises out-of-favor, oversold cyclical assets poised for a rebound amid the ultimate surge of nominal GDP—and thus, the broader bubble. Within this framework, Hartnett identifies the materials sector as the optimal pairing with semiconductor euphoria. Consumer discretionary, China-related, and UK assets also hold pairing potential; by contrast, bonds—currently shunned by the market—do not fit this logic.

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