Duan Yongping gets an injection and casually buys Eli Lilly

China refuses to remain a mere spectator. Hengrui Medicine’s self-developed HRS9531—a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist—achieved an average weight loss of 22.8% after 36 weeks of treatment at an 8 mg dose. Notably, participants had not yet reached a plateau at trial completion, suggesting further weight loss would continue with extended use. This figure rivals that of tirzepatide. Hengrui has already submitted a marketing authorization application to China’s National Medical Products Administration (NMPA). But Hengrui’s ambitions extend far beyond domestic approval. In May 2024, it licensed the global development rights for HRS9531 outside Greater China to Kailera Therapeutics—a newly established U.S. company—in exchange for up to $6 billion in upfront and milestone payments, plus a 19.9% equity stake in Kailera. Kailera subsequently raised $400 million in Series A and $600 million in Series B funding, and is now pursuing an IPO on Nasdaq. A weight-loss injection born in a Chinese lab is now telling its story on Wall Street. This represents the true apex of the industry chain: robust Phase III clinical data, strong patent protection, and backing from multinational capital. Yet apex products are invariably expensive. In China, tirzepatide costs roughly ¥1,700 per month out-of-pocket; in the U.S., over $1,000 monthly. Such pricing excludes most people who need it. Those excluded haven’t given up—they’ve simply sought cheaper entry points. How much is anxiety worth? They know better than you do. Price walls never block demand—they only redirect its flow. First, demand flows into gray areas. In the U.S., some did the math: Wegovy costs $1,349 per month—but its active ingredient, semaglutide, is a publicly disclosed chemical compound. Compounding pharmacies can synthesize it themselves, theoretically delivering identical efficacy at a fraction of the cost. Hims & Hers built its business precisely on this logic—offering the same compound at a discounted $49, requiring no insurance or clinic visit: just answer a few questions on your phone, and the medication ships directly to your door. By 2025, the company had amassed 2.5 million subscribers and $2.35 billion in revenue. MedVi went even further—automating the medical consultation itself with AI. No real physician sits behind the screen; instead, algorithms automatically review cases, issue prescriptions, and dispatch shipments. With just two full-time employees, MedVi generated $400 million in annual revenue. The New York Times published a feature on the company, its headline carrying the implicit subtext: “This is the future.” Then investigative journalists uncovered FDA warning letters, AI-generated fake doctor avatars, and the exaggerated—or outright fabricated—“before-and-after” photos of purported users. The other side of the story emerged: this wasn’t the future—it was a meticulously packaged arbitrage scheme. Regulators eventually stepped in. The FDA issued multiple warnings; Novo Nordisk sued Hims for patent infringement, triggering a 14% single-day plunge in Hims’ stock price. The ending was almost absurd: Hims ultimately settled with Novo Nordisk, pivoted to selling authentic Wegovy—and raised its monthly fee from $49 to $149. The disruptor became a distributor, tripling its price while staying open for business. Yet once this door closed, demand didn’t vanish.

Global giant: Eli Lilly is preparing for the ‘Weight-Loss Drug 2.0’ commercial battle

Nonetheless, this move aligns with Eli Lilly’s expectations and long-term strategy. CEO David Ricks noted during the company’s early-February annual earnings call that it is intended to prepare for a full-scale commercial launch under normal conditions. GLP-1 injectables have enjoyed tremendous mainstream popularity, forcing Lilly to restrict patient access earlier to preserve inventory. Unlike tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound), however, the company expects no such supply constraints for the oral agent orforglipron. Analysts estimate that Lilly’s $500+ million orforglipron inventory could generate up to $10 billion in sales—and the company may further increase inventory ahead of commercial launch. Orforglipron was originally developed by Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.—a Roche subsidiary. In 2018, Lilly acquired global development and commercialization rights from Chugai. If successfully commercialized, Chugai stands to receive tiered royalties on future global net sales, as well as up to $140 million in regulatory milestone payments and up to $250 million in commercial milestone payments. Source: Mosheng Pharma Data Latest pricing strategy for the weight-loss version of tirzepatide Tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) injections generated approximately $16.47 billion in sales for Lilly in 2024. Though launched later than competitor Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy), tirzepatide’s growth has been explosive—securing second place globally among GLP-1 drugs. Earlier surges in demand for GLP-1 receptor agonists led to global shortages of both Lilly’s tirzepatide and Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide. As manufacturers ramped up production capacity and optimized supply chains, the FDA confirmed in December 2024 and February 2025, respectively, that tirzepatide and semaglutide were no longer in shortage. This means compounding pharmacies will be required to cease production and sale of compounded GLP-1 formulations. Telemedicine company Hims & Hers—which previously sold such compounded GLP-1 products—suffered sharp losses. To minimize patient disruption, however, the FDA granted compounding pharmacies a 60–90-day grace period, allowing patients time to transfer prescriptions to pharmacies dispensing FDA-approved medications. Hims & Hers may soon lose its legal basis to sell GLP-1 products altogether and is expected to expand into new specialty areas and services. Source: FDA The encroachment of compounded formulations on the branded GLP-1 market may now be coming to an end—but competition is far from over. Just recently, on February 25, Lilly announced new initiatives for Zepbound—the weight-loss version of tirzepatide—in the U.S., including: launching new single-dose vial presentations of Zepbound in 7.5 mg and 10 mg strengths; and introducing a Zepbound Out-of-Pocket Treatment Program priced at $499 per month—provided patients renew their prescription within 45 days.

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