Tech stocks staged a strong rebound; Nasdaq futures rose 0.7%; the yen came under pressure; Brent crude fell 2% intraday.

A strong rebound in tech stocks, coupled with persistently falling oil prices, boosted global market sentiment. The U.S. S&P 500 Index is poised to post a weekly gain—ending a volatile trading week on a positive note. Nvidia’s optimistic earnings outlook further propelled chip stocks higher: Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.7%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%. Asian markets followed suit: South Korea’s KOSPI surged 2.7%, leading regional gains. In contrast, Europe’s STOXX 600—less exposed to AI-related stocks—fell 0.3%. This week marked a notable turning point: the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes reinforced its credibility in fighting inflation; concerns over Middle Eastern oil supply disruptions eased; and ongoing semiconductor supply-demand imbalances continued supporting chipmakers’ earnings expectations. Brent crude declined for the third consecutive day, nearing $102 per barrel; gold rose to around $4,400 per ounce. The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate as expected on Friday, sending USD/JPY up 1% intraday to 157.53. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated it remains difficult to assess whether financial conditions are overly accommodative. Markets also faced added volatility from the 'triple witching' day—when individual stock options, index options, and futures all expired simultaneously. According to Dilin Wu, Strategist at Pepperstone Group, over $2 trillion in notional value of options expired today. Historical data shows the S&P 500 has a higher-than-average probability of closing lower on triple witching days. Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.7%; S&P 500 futures rose 0.4%. Europe’s STOXX 50 opened down 0.2%; Germany’s DAX fell 0.4%; the UK’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.2%; France’s CAC 40 declined 0.4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 1.4% at 65,018.95; the Topix fell 0.1% to 4,091.14. South Korea’s KOSPI surged 2.7% to 6,894.23. USD/JPY rose 1% intraday to 157.53. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated it remains difficult to assess whether financial conditions are overly accommodative. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1488. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.94%. Japan’s 30-year JGB futures erased earlier gains; its 20-year yield stood at 3.835%; the 10-year yield narrowed its decline to roughly 1.5 basis points. Brent crude fell 2.0% intraday to $97.92 per barrel. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,362.87 per ounce. Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $77,426.01. This Week’s Market Rotation: From Turbulence to Recovery At the start of the week, multiple pressures hit markets simultaneously—Brent crude touched a four-month high; the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surged to a near 19-year peak; and persistent concerns about AI technology posing an “existential risk” weighed heavily on chip stocks. Yet as these risks gradually eased, markets staged a clear recovery midweek.

I. Today’s Key Themes Today’s global markets revolved around three main narratives. First, renewed military escalation between the U.S. and Iran—but oil prices fell instead, indicating markets are not currently pricing in the extreme scenario of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and uncontrolled energy supply disruption. Second, AI-driven capital expenditures have re-emerged as the core support for risk assets. Micron’s expanded U.S. investment, Meta’s push into in-house chip development, and SK Hynix’s successful large-scale fundraising collectively drove a rebound across the global semiconductor sector. Third, monetary policy has not shifted toward easing. The Fed’s latest meeting minutes signaled more explicit discussions about further rate hikes, while the ECB reiterated that inflation will remain above target for an extended period. Markets remain caught in a tug-of-war between rising AI-driven earnings expectations and persistently elevated global interest rates. II. Key Events Today 1. U.S.-Iran tensions escalate—but oil prices fall: Markets aren’t pricing in energy supply disruption—for now. What happened: Both the U.S. and Iran announced new rounds of military strikes in the Gulf region, reducing shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. Yet NYMEX crude futures fell 2.3% to $71.83 per barrel; Brent crude dropped 2.5% to $76.05. Gold rose 1.1% to $4,121.12 per ounce. Why it matters: If markets truly feared a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices would typically surge sharply. This ‘escalating conflict yet falling oil prices’ reflects investor belief—so far—that the conflict remains contained, or that actual oil supplies have not yet been significantly disrupted. Potential implications: Falling oil prices help ease near-term inflation pressures in the U.S. and Europe, and reduce cost burdens for airlines, transport, chemicals, and consumer sectors. For tech stocks, stable oil prices mean Treasury yields need not rise further on inflation fears—supporting high-valuation assets. That said, gold’s continued rise signals that safe-haven demand remains intact. Markets have merely downgraded their pricing of an energy crisis—not declared the end of geopolitical risk. What to watch next: Monitor actual vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian oil exports, whether the U.S. escalates military action, and whether Brent crude regains $80 per barrel. Assessment: A short-term disturbance—but carries potential to evolve into a medium-term inflation driver. 2. Nasdaq rose 1.3%: AI and semiconductors reclaim market leadership. What happened: On July 9, the S&P 500 rose 0.81% to close at 7,543.66; the Nasdaq rose 1.30%; and the Dow Jones rose 0.27%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 3.06%; Micron rose 4.5%; Applied Materials rose 3.2%; SanDisk surged 7.6%. Micron also announced it will raise its planned U.S. wafer-fab and technology investments through 2035 to over $250 billion—citing surging AI-era demand for memory chips. Why it matters: The key driver behind this year’s tech rally isn’t mere valuation expansion—it’s the emergence of a tangible capital expenditure cycle centered on AI data centers, HBM, DRAM, NAND, advanced packaging, and power infrastructure. Micron’s expanded investment signals memory manufacturers view current demand as more than just short-term inventory restocking—and potentially indicative of multi-year supply-demand gaps.

Europe's STOXX 600 Gains as Tech Rallies, Oil Retreat Eases Nerves

10 hours ago

European equities rose led by technology, while falling oil prices eased market nerves despite energy sector declines. Pharma stocks were mixed, with AstraZeneca slipping post-drug recommendation and Ipsen dropping over 6%.

reuters

2026-09-21

Europe's STOXX 600 Gains as Tech Rallies, Oil Retreat Eases Nerves

Europe's STOXX 600 Gains as Tech Rallies, Oil Retreat Eases Nerves

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