Last night, while preparing to strike Iran, Trump sent a letter to Iran: oil prices haven’t risen, yet AI stocks have already fallen. How will markets move today?

This indicates that crude oil experienced clear downward pressure intraday, followed by some degree of support. Behind this round of price movement lie two opposing forces. The first is the expectation of diplomatic de-escalation. Vance has re-established direct communication channels with senior Iranian officials; Qatar continues advancing its peace proposal; and U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Barak publicly stated that the U.S. and Iran may be approaching some form of temporary de-escalation arrangement. These signals have heightened market expectations for future easing of tensions. If the U.S. and Iran ultimately reach an implementable agreement, shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz and energy transportation costs could gradually improve. The second force is actual military and shipping risks. The Houthis retain long-range strike capability; new maritime security incidents have re-emerged in the Strait of Hormuz; and the U.S. has not withdrawn its readiness to employ further military measures. Thus, after crude prices fall to a certain level, markets may still reassess these persistent supply risks. Accordingly, yesterday’s price action cannot be simplistically interpreted as the market believing peace is imminent. A more accurate interpretation is that the market is simultaneously pricing in both the possibility of diplomatic easing and the reality of ongoing military risk. There is another issue worth noting: The current oil price level is already relatively high. Brent crude remains near USD 115 per barrel—meaning the accumulated energy risk premium has not fully dissipated. Therefore, crude oil merely failing to rise further on a given day does not mean energy has become cheap, nor does it signal a return to normalcy in global transportation systems. If no new major physical losses occur, diplomatic developments may continue suppressing the risk premium. Conversely, if sustained disruptions emerge—whether in the Strait of Hormuz, at Saudi energy infrastructure, or along alternative transport corridors—the market will need to recalculate supply costs. That is the fundamental question crude oil markets truly face today. IV. More consequential than missile statements: U.S. oil majors are already altering real-world behavior On October 29, Reuters reported another intriguing development: Darren Woods, CEO of ExxonMobil, and Chevron’s upstream business head canceled their scheduled attendance next week at the Abu Dhabi ADIPEC International Energy Conference. Sources familiar with the matter attributed the cancellations to regional security concerns. Neither company publicly confirmed the specific reasons for canceling their participation. The significance of this news lies in its reflection of corporate behavior. Military threats constitute information; companies canceling critical business travel due to risk reflects concrete decision-making. Of course, canceling a trip does not imply these firms possess insider knowledge of an imminent U.S. military strike. Multinational energy companies maintain strict personnel safety management standards. When regional risk rises—even absent confirmed military action—they may proactively reduce staff exposure. Yet this development signals that Middle East risk has entered the operational calculus of certain enterprises. Another report comes from Qatar. Saad Al-Kaabi, CEO of QatarEnergy, told Reuters the company is hedging against potential future disruptions in Hormuz shipping by procuring long-term LNG supplies from regions including the United States. Over the past two weeks, QatarEnergy has signed or disclosed approximately 7 million tonnes per year of long-term LNG procurement agreements.

2026 Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (ADIPEC)

Exhibition Overview Dates: November 2–5, 2026 Organizers: DMG & ADNOC Venue: Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC) Edition: 42nd Since its founding in 1984, the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (ADIPEC) has evolved from a regional specialist exhibition into one of the world’s most influential oil and gas events—and the largest, most impactful industry gathering across the Middle East, Africa, and the Asian subcontinent. The 42nd edition of ADIPEC in 2026 will once again bring together global industry leaders, serving as the premier platform for business matchmaking and trend exchange. We cordially invite your company to participate and jointly seize new opportunities in the global oil and gas market! In 2025, ADIPEC attracted over 2,250 exhibitors from around the world, national oil and energy companies from 54 countries, more than 1,800 speakers, over 60 energy ministers, and over 230,000 registered attendees. The China Pavilion covered 5,300 square meters and featured over 300 Chinese enterprises—including CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC, China Oilfield Services (COSL), China Classification Society (CCS), Zhenhua Oil, Honghua Group, Jereh Group, Jiangnan Shipyard, Great Wall Drilling, and Heli Forklift. The 42nd Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition will be held at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre from November 2–5, 2026, and is expected to draw over 2,300 exhibitors and more than 240,000 industry professionals. Market Opportunities 1. A Multi-Billion-Dollar Investment Wave in the Middle East Generates Massive Procurement Demand The Middle East’s oil and gas sector is entering an unprecedented investment boom—creating historic collaboration opportunities for global suppliers. As the world’s largest oil company, Saudi Aramco has launched its “Three-Year 85 Projects” initiative, committing USD 100 billion over the next three years to advance new construction, upgrades, and expansions across oil and gas production, pipeline networks, and civil infrastructure. These projects will translate into hundreds of subcontracting contracts, generating substantial supply-chain demand gaps. For pipelines alone, 21,000 km of carbon steel pipe and 2.2 million tonnes of structural steel are required; power equipment needs include 6,000 transformers and 24,000 switchgear units; and basic construction materials demand totals 113 million cubic meters of backfill material and 3.3 million cubic meters of concrete—creating urgent procurement needs across the full product chain, from core equipment to supporting consumables. Similarly, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has been highly active: in the second half of 2025, it awarded local procurement contracts totaling RMB 104.5 billion, covering strategic services, drilling, logistics, and digital solutions. ADNOC aims to achieve RMB 175.5 billion in local production procurement by 2030. During the Business Partners Forum held alongside ADIPEC, ADNOC will unveil its 2026–2027 procurement pipeline—enabling SMEs and technology partners to directly access core commercial opportunities arising from the UAE’s industrialization drive, and participate in multi-billion-dollar project ecosystems. 2. Energy Transition and Technological Innovation Open High-Value-Added Pathways Amid the global energy transition, the traditional oil and gas industry is accelerating its shift toward low-carbon, digital, and high-efficiency operations. ADIPEC 2026 will serve as the central hub for deploying cutting-edge technologies and forging commercial partnerships.

Exxon, Chevron Cancel Executive Trips to UAE's ADIPEC, Sources Say

23 hours ago

US oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron have cancelled executive attendance at the UAE's ADIPEC energy show citing security concerns amid rising US-Iran tensions. While other industry leaders remain scheduled, the move highlights growing geopolitical risks affecting the global energy sector.

reuters

2026-05-13

Exxon, Chevron Face Dissent from Proxy Firms Ahead of Annual Meetings

2026-07-31

Exxon, Chevron warn of continued high fuel prices from Iran war

2026-08-01

Major Oil Companies Post Record Profits as Geopolitical Tensions Drive Energy Prices Up

2026-08-05

ExxonMobil and Chevron Warn of Continued Tight Finished Product Supply in H2

2026-10-29

Exxon, Chevron Cancel Executive Trips to UAE's ADIPEC, Sources Say