The excess profits generated by war have once again made major oil companies a target of attack.

On June 29, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump posted a final ultimatum on Truth Social, addressing all U.S. gas station retailers: reduce gasoline prices to approximately $2.50 per gallon—or face 'serious problems.' He warned of zero tolerance for so-called 'illegal price gouging' and escalated an action campaign ongoing for several weeks, aimed at forcing energy companies to pass wholesale price cuts on to consumers. At the time, international crude oil prices fluctuated between $60 and $68 per barrel—a relatively low level by recent historical standards. Trump’s argument was straightforward: if raw materials are cheap, then finished products should be too. This was not an isolated outburst. The June 29 appeal followed a similar statement issued by Trump on June 24; prior to that, on June 25, he had already publicly accused oil companies of exploiting consumers by failing to pass on reduced wholesale costs. In his June 29 post, alongside sharp criticism came threats—at least implicit ones. Trump ordered the Department of Justice to investigate oil companies, specifically focusing on the gap between the fuel prices paid by retailers and those actually paid by consumers at gas stations. Moreover, California received special attention in this post. Trump pointed out that the state’s fuel tax policy imposed a heavy burden on drivers. As Trump intensified scrutiny over gasoline prices, major oil companies stood poised to record unprecedented profits. Soaring international oil prices inevitably generate substantial excess profits for oil-producing and exporting countries—and for oil companies—just as they have done throughout the 160-year history of the global petroleum industry. Yet, while the Trump administration grappled with persistently high domestic fuel prices, highly profitable major oil companies found themselves squarely in Trump’s crosshairs. Industry expert Tsvetana Paraskova detailed this situation in an article published on the website OilPrice.com on July 6, 2026. Paraskova noted that major oil companies were expecting unexpected second-quarter profits: ExxonMobil and Chevron’s earnings were projected to more than triple, driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz that sent crude prices surging and boosted refining margins. Although industry insiders acknowledged that retail gasoline prices lagged behind falling crude prices, this profit surge intensified political pressure—prompting President Trump to demand gasoline prices drop to $2.25–$2.50 per gallon and launch investigations into price manipulation. Oil companies countered by citing market cyclicality, attributing the current gasoline price rise primarily to low fuel inventories, improved refining economics, and supply-chain delays—not profiteering. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, crude oil prices surged to their highest level in four years, and oil majors anticipated unexpected gains in the second quarter. ExxonMobil and Chevron’s profits for the April–June quarter were projected to triple compared to the first quarter, as the most severe supply disruption in oil market history blocked Middle Eastern oil exports, triggered a crude price spike and heightened market volatility—and depleted oil inventories across the United States and elsewhere.

Geopolitical conflict fuels energy windfalls and economic fragmentation: A deep macroeconomic analysis of oil-price dynamics, oil-company excess profits, and global macroeconomic impacts amid the U.S.–Iran war.

Introduction In late February 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran, triggering a full-blown military confrontation among the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Global energy’s critical artery—the Strait of Hormuz—saw its shipping severely disrupted, sending the international crude oil market into violent oscillation. Geopolitical risk premiums pushed oil prices steadily higher. U.S. oil giants—including ExxonMobil and Chevron—capitalized on the price surge to secure historic excess profits, with some firms’ profits reaching 12 times year-on-year levels. On August 3 (local time), President Trump publicly expressed dissatisfaction with oil companies’ windfall profits at the White House: on one hand, he condemned oil firms for seizing wartime gains and refusing to pass savings on to end consumers, and demanded that oil majors slash domestic refined-fuel retail prices; on the other, he bluntly forecast that once the U.S. fully resolved the Iranian issue and regional geopolitical tensions stabilized, global oil prices would plunge precipitously. This energy-price storm—ignited by armed conflict—has long transcended the scope of commodity markets, forming a complete economic transmission chain: Middle Eastern geopolitical turbulence → violent fluctuations in international oil prices → U.S. oil companies reaping wartime windfalls → domestic inflation rebounding and household consumption straining → the Federal Reserve caught in a monetary-policy dilemma → White House administrative pressure on energy giants → global industrial-chain cost restructuring. Researchers from the Ameriga Global Economic Research Institute (Shanghai), under Ameriga Global (Shanghai) Economic Development Co., Ltd., had earlier observed and analyzed this dynamic, noting that the current oil-price volatility is far more than a standalone energy-market event—it will reshape global cross-border supply chains, regional trade layouts, digital-industry cost structures, and the pace of new-energy development. Several domestic industrial research institutions have likewise conducted complementary analyses from perspectives including supply chains, digital technology, and industrial manufacturing. This article provides a comprehensive, in-depth economic analysis across six dimensions: crude-oil pricing logic; deconstruction of U.S. oil-company profitability; macroeconomic shocks to the United States; global inflation and trade patterns; expectations-based博弈 (game-theoretic) dynamics of oil-price increases and decreases; and the future trajectory of the energy sector—clarifying the underlying operational logic of energy economics amid geopolitical warfare, dissecting the dual economic and political motivations behind Trump’s pressure on oil companies, and forecasting the profound implications of the conflict’s trajectory for oil prices and the global economy. Chapter One: U.S.–Iran Conflict Reshapes Global Crude Supply Architecture; Geopolitical Premium Emerges as Core Price Driver 1.1 The Strait of Hormuz: The Lifeline of the Global Oil Supply Chain—and the Fundamental Catalyst Behind This Oil-Price Surge The Strait of Hormuz controls the sole maritime outlet from the Persian Gulf, handling roughly 30% of seaborne crude oil shipments and about 20% of total global crude consumption. Core Middle Eastern producers—including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran—rely heavily on this waterway for crude exports, earning it the moniker 'the world’s oil valve.' Following the U.S.–Israel airstrikes against Iran in late February 2026, Iran swiftly retaliated—deploying drones and missiles to harass passing tankers and laying maritime blockade infrastructure. As a result, the Strait’s navigational efficiency plummeted by half; numerous crude carriers were forced to reroute, causing sharp hikes in maritime transport costs and insurance premiums. Markets formed persistent fears of supply disruption—not due to actual crude output declines, but rather to sustained psychological and logistical bottlenecks. This became the core ignition point for the oil-price surge. Prior to the outbreak of hostilities, WTI U.S. crude benchmark prices held steady in the $65–$68/barrel range, while Brent crude hovered near $72/barrel. Within one month of the conflict’s onset, Brent crude spiked to an intraday high of $126/barrel, and WTI breached $100/barrel—a short-term surge exceeding 54%, marking the largest staged oil-price increase in nearly four years. Even after markets gradually absorbed some of the extreme panic, prices experienced only partial retracement: as of early August, both benchmark contracts remained over 20% above pre-war levels, and U.S. domestic retail gasoline prices had risen nearly 40%. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average gasoline price soared from $2.98/gallon before the war to $4.10/gallon—fuel-cost inflation directly squeezing American households’ daily expenditures.

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