International oil prices have breached $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022—will they remain high for an extended period? How significantly will this affect our daily lives?

VI. Why is this not a conspiracy theory? Three concrete, already-verified facts Many people may consider this an overinterpretation—but all prerequisite conditions have already become verifiable facts: 1. Control has been fully secured: According to the official website of the U.S. Department of Energy, Venezuela’s crude oil global sales officially commenced in January 2026—marking full U.S. control over Venezuela’s core petroleum industry. This is not speculation; it is an official announcement. 2. Capital has entered early: U.S. oil giants—including Chevron—have already signed long-term cooperation agreements with Venezuela’s interim government to resume extraction operations, laying the groundwork for price-locking mechanisms. 3. The political framework is complete: The United States unilaterally recognized Venezuelan Vice President Rodríguez as ‘Acting President,’ and former President Trump publicly pledged to establish a new bilateral relationship. In his State of the Union address, he proudly highlighted securing 80 million barrels of Venezuelan oil. A puppet government is now in place, providing legitimate counterparties for subsequent contracts and loans. VII. What happens next under this script? Five trackable verification signals The following signals, once observed, would confirm that this scenario is unfolding as planned: 1. [Financial Signal] U.S. oil majors—including Chevron and ExxonMobil—publicly disclose large-scale crude oil short-hedging positions, or sign formal 10+-year-long crude sales agreements with Venezuela. 2. [Contractual Signal] The U.S. and Venezuela formally sign an official U.S. dollar-denominated loan agreement, explicitly pledging Venezuela’s oil reserves as primary collateral, with funds earmarked exclusively for petroleum development. 3. [Oil Price Signal] WTI crude stabilizes above $85 per barrel, and Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions continue amplifying oil price gains—each escalation triggering further price surges. 4. [Production Capacity Signal] Venezuela’s daily crude output rises steadily from its current 700,000–800,000 barrels to over 1.5 million barrels, with the vast majority of exports handled by U.S. companies. 5. [Policy Signal] The Federal Reserve delays interest-rate cuts and issues hawkish signals to counter rising inflation—aligning monetary policy with persistently elevated oil prices. VIII. What could derail this script? Four uncontrollable risk variables Of course, this closed-loop scenario is not foolproof. Four critical variables could directly cause it to collapse: 1. The probability of runaway oil price spikes has effectively been capped jointly by China and the U.S.: Many fear total Middle East destabilization—e.g., closure of the Strait of Hormuz—pushing oil prices above $130/barrel, triggering global recession, collapsing demand, and causing oil prices to plummet. Yet a crucial implicit safeguard exists: On the imperative that “oil prices must not spiral out of control nor trigger a global hard landing,” China’s and the U.S.’s interests are perfectly aligned. As noted earlier, most Iranian and Venezuelan crude flows to China—the world’s largest crude importer. Uncontrolled price surges would inflict severe imported inflation on China, disrupting domestic economic recovery—a scenario Beijing absolutely seeks to avoid. Likewise, the U.S. does not want oil prices to spin completely out of control and trigger global financial collapse, which would ultimately backfire on its own “harvesting” strategy. In other words, the two largest economies—the world’s biggest crude consumer and the dominant force in crude pricing—have jointly drawn an invisible red line on oil prices: Prices may rise; panic premiums are permissible—but outright loss of control and systemic collapse are strictly off-limits. This constitutes the foundational safety net underpinning the entire harvesting script. 2. Venezuelan political reversal: If the pro-U.S. interim government collapses and massive anti-U.S. sentiment erupts domestically—leading to the reassertion of national control over petroleum resources—all existing contracts and loans would instantly become void. 3. Countermoves by other major powers: Countries including China and Russia will not stand idly by while the U.S. fully seizes control of Venezuela’s oil resources. They may respond by offering alternative financing or increasing crude purchases—thereby breaking U.S. exclusive control. 4. OPEC+’s counteroffensive: U.S. control over Venezuelan production directly threatens OPEC+’s global oil price-setting authority. In response, OPEC+ may implement unexpectedly deep production cuts—or even abandon dollar-based oil settlement—to strike back at the petrodollar system.

Venezuela, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina: an emerging new oil-exporting bloc

According to the latest analysis, if oil prices sustain $100 per barrel, Rystad Energy forecasts that South America’s daily crude supply could increase by up to 2.1 million barrels by the mid-2030s. This finding comes amid the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz—which has prompted a substantial upward revision of the 2026 average oil price forecast, from $60 per barrel (Brent) in January to $89 per barrel today. Based on current production levels, South American governments’ revenues are projected to rise by approximately $43 billion in 2026 alone versus the baseline scenario—further underscoring hydrocarbons’ central role in public finances across the region, from Brasília to Caracas. Within the region, Petrobras stands to benefit most: Under the current $89-per-barrel forecast, its revenue will increase by $13.1 billion compared to the January $60-per-barrel baseline. Radhika Bansal, Senior Vice President of Oil & Gas Research at Rystad Energy, notes that the Middle East conflict has not only driven oil prices higher but also exposed the dangerous concentration of global supply chains around the Strait of Hormuz. South America has now emerged as the world’s most important source of incremental oil supply—possessing precisely the scale, geological resources, and relatively stable political environment needed as the world urgently seeks alternatives. Offshore development projects in Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname represent the most direct source of oil production growth. Over the next decade, fast-track projects in these markets are expected to add up to one million barrels of oil equivalent per day; by 2035, new greenfield capital expenditures are projected to reach roughly $33 billion. In Guyana, ExxonMobil aims to raise daily output from the Yellowtail project to 300,000 barrels—up from its initial 250,000 barrels upon startup. Rystad Energy estimates that similar debottlenecking measures could boost daily output at the Errea Wittu, Jaguar, and Hammerhead fields by an additional 80,000–90,000 barrels. The greatest growth potential lies in early final investment decisions (FIDs) for new projects—not in expanding existing assets. However, limited shipyard capacity for new floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) units remains a key constraint. Beyond these three countries, Venezuela has re-entered the global supply market following President Nicolás Maduro’s arrest in January 2026 and the decline in supplies of medium-heavy, sour crude from the Middle East. Assuming $100-per-barrel oil, Rystad Energy estimates Venezuela’s daily crude output could increase by 910,000 barrels by 2035—with 57% coming from existing fields in eastern and western provinces, where operating costs for medium-grade crude stand at just $7–$8 per barrel. ExxonMobil’s CEO declared Venezuela “uninvestable” in January 2026—but the company has since dispatched technical teams to assess opportunities there. Shell signed a preliminary agreement with Venezuela’s state-owned oil company in early March 2026, covering both offshore and onshore exploration. All timelines remain contingent upon sanctions relief and fiscal reform. Should investor confidence improve—and more firms follow suit—including Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell—the potential for growth would expand significantly.

Exxon signs preliminary agreement with Venezuela to evaluate oil opportunities

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ExxonMobil signed a non-binding memorandum with Venezuela's PDVSA to explore upstream oil opportunities, signaling a potential return after exiting two decades ago. Future investment requires stable policies and a final contract for joint ventures or production-sharing agreements.

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