What is ExxonMobil's projection for Tengiz field's production decline, and when does it expect the peak to occur?

ExxonMobil has projected that Tengiz — Kazakhstan’s top oil field — will plateau in output next year and then decline sharply to about 500,000 barrels per day by 2035, representing a roughly 40% slump from its peak production level. The company stated that this trajectory assumes no large-scale new investments to boost output, and the forecast was presented privately to Kazakh authorities in Astana.

What major investment is ExxonMobil proposing at Kashagan, and what conditions are attached to it?

ExxonMobil is proposing an $80 billion joint investment with KazMunayGas National Co. to develop the undeveloped western part of the Kashagan field, which could potentially yield up to 600,000 barrels per day; however, this investment is explicitly contingent on resolving both a long-running $150 billion dispute between the Kazakh government and international oil companies and a $5 billion environmental fine.

Exxon Warns Kazakhstan’s Top Oil Field to Peak Within Years

Aug 20, 2026

ExxonMobil warns Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field will peak soon and fall 40% by 2035 without investment. The company proposes an $80 billion Kashagan joint venture to offset declines, contingent on resolving government disputes.

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