The 2026 global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market: oversupplied and highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks

Like the global oil market, the international natural gas market entered a state of oversupply in 2025. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), a key pricing benchmark, plunged by over 40%—a decline significantly exceeding the同期 drop in global oil prices. Institutions and industry experts anticipate that, with a wave of U.S.-led LNG projects coming online, the global LNG market in 2026 will face severe oversupply, driving LNG prices further downward and rendering them highly susceptible to geopolitical disruptions. Europe—deeply reliant on U.S. LNG—has effectively become the price-setter for the global LNG market. The 2026 global LNG market will be oversupplied, with prices continuing to fall. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Q1 2026 'Gas Market Report', global natural gas demand in 2025 totaled 4.286 trillion cubic meters, with growth sharply decelerating from 2.8% in 2024 to just 0.82%. Global production reached 4.264 trillion cubic meters, up 0.94% year-on-year. Industry data project global LNG exports in 2025 at 445 million tonnes—a 7% increase year-on-year—while demand stood at 430 million tonnes, up 6% from 2024. The United States was the largest contributor to 2025 LNG supply growth, with projected cumulative LNG exports reaching 117 million tonnes, a 32% increase year-on-year. This abundant supply drove sharp declines in international gas prices: the TTF 2025 futures price fell by €22.394 per MWh—a staggering 44.29% drop—far exceeding the 18.79% decline in Brent crude oil futures over the same period. Market consensus expects that, as substantial new LNG capacity—primarily from the U.S.—comes online in 2026, the global LNG market will experience severe oversupply, pushing natural gas prices down again. On January 25, 2026, industry expert Felicity Bradstock wrote on the 'Oil Price' website that U.S. LNG trade hit a record high in 2025, with estimated exports of 111 million tonnes; numerous new facilities are set to begin operations in 2026, exerting further downward pressure on prices. While the initial surge in U.S. LNG exports was welcomed by Europe—as an alternative to Russian gas—it has since raised concerns about the region’s growing overreliance on U.S. energy supplies…

LNG demand could surge by 60%! What preparations should China’s 'Big Three' oil & gas companies make?

In 2023, the United States surpassed Qatar and Australia to become the world’s top LNG exporter, with exports totaling 91.2 million tonnes. This milestone stemmed from a shale gas production boom and surging European demand for LNG. U.S. LNG tankers crossing the Atlantic filled Europe’s annual natural gas shortfall of 26 million tonnes—accounting for 46% of its total imports. However, a Shell report notes that the U.S. leadership faced a 'chill' in 2024: export growth slowed to its lowest level in a decade, due to Middle Eastern countries’ dominance in long-term supply contracts and U.S. export restrictions. In January 2024, the U.S. government suspended new LNG export licenses to countries without free trade agreements, citing 'climate crisis response.' This move sent shockwaves through the industry: major firms including Chevron and ExxonMobil criticized the policy as undermining energy transition efforts; the EU and Japan jointly urged the U.S. to rescind the ban, warning of risks to global LNG supply chain stability. Shell estimates that if the policy remains in place, the U.S. could forfeit roughly 90 million tonnes per year of potential LNG export capacity—equivalent to 70% of Qatar’s current output. Ironically, in 2025 the U.S. reversed the ban: the Department of Energy announced it would accelerate licensing procedures while retaining environmental impact reviews. Such policy reversals expose an inherent contradiction in U.S. energy strategy—balancing domestic climate goals against the economic benefits derived from energy exports. The global LNG energy landscape is being reshaped. U.S. LNG expansion is transforming global energy trade patterns. Shell forecasts that by 2030, the U.S. and Qatar together will control 60% of global LNG supply—a 'dual-hegemony' structure with profound implications for Asia and Europe. In Asia, China—the world’s largest LNG importer—sourced only 5.4% of its LNG imports from the U.S. in 2024. Amid trade tensions, China has diversified procurement toward Australia, Qatar, and expanded pipeline gas cooperation with Russia. In March 2025, Woodside Energy of Australia signed a 15-year LNG supply agreement with China Resources Gas. India is accelerating natural gas infrastructure development, aiming to raise natural gas’s share of its energy mix to 15% by 2030. Recently, Alaska sought Asian investors for its $44 billion LNG project. In Europe, U.S. LNG has become a 'lifeline' for energy security—but high import costs have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Data…

ExxonMobil Executive Sees US Accounting for 30% of Global LNG Market by 2030

Sep 14, 2026

An ExxonMobil executive predicts U.S. liquefied natural gas supply will reach 30% of the global total by 2030. Peter Clarke stated North America remains a leading gas-producing region capable of meeting domestic and export demands.

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ExxonMobil Executive Sees US Accounting for 30% of Global LNG Market by 2030

ExxonMobil Executive Sees US Accounting for 30% of Global LNG Market by 2030

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