Iran claims it will strike oil facilities in three Middle Eastern countries and fully target U.S.-linked oil infrastructure—could the conflict spiral completely out of control? How high could oil prices go?

Latest news: According to the CEO of QatarGas, Iran’s missile attacks could inflict $20 billion in losses on the Ras Laffan gas field. Reuters, citing QatarEnergy’s CEO, reported that Iran’s attack (which occurred on March 18) has disrupted approximately 17% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity—damaging two of its 14 LNG production lines and one Gas-to-Liquid (GTL) facility. During repairs—which are expected to last three to five years—these facilities will halt output of roughly 12.8 million tons of LNG annually. This disruption could result in annual revenue losses of about $20 billion and threaten energy supplies to Europe and Asia. Kuwait was struck by two Iranian drones: one hit the Ahmadi Port refinery—the largest in the Gulf region—with a daily output of approximately 730,000 barrels; the second triggered a fire at the nearby Abdullah Port refinery, which produces about 454,000 barrels per day. The UAE’s state-owned oil company refinery at Fujairah Port was again struck by Iranian missiles. Two refineries operated by Saudi Aramco were also hit by Iranian missiles; explosions rattled Riyadh citywide. NASA’s fire-monitoring satellite imagery shows that, following two massive explosions caused by Iranian missile impacts in Riyadh’s industrial zone, a large fire broke out directly across the street from an Aramco refinery. Oil infrastructure in Yanbu Port—located on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast—was struck and damaged by drones. Additionally, a container ship caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz (coordinates: 26.4294, 56.8285); nearby, a group of speedboats was observed. Despite threats from the U.S. Air Force, Iranian suicide drones continue operations. Moreover, reports indicate that Bahrain’s natural gas facilities were struck again by Iranian missiles. From yesterday to today, nearly all energy infrastructure targeted by Iran across Gulf states constitutes their most critical strategic assets—and their primary source of national revenue. This demonstrates that Iran is not bluffing: should its own energy infrastructure be destroyed by the U.S. and Israel, Iran appears prepared to pursue a mutually assured destruction scenario across the entire Gulf region.

Analysis of the latest battlefield developments in the Russia-Ukraine war as of 5:00 a.m. on September 23, 2026 (text version)!

1. Al Jazeera reports that tensions in the Middle East—particularly between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia—continue to deteriorate. Over the past two days, the Houthis launched their first-ever strikes against Saudi Arabia’s capital, Riyadh. Houthi spokespersons stated that their forces deployed ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones to strike ‘sensitive targets’ in Riyadh and Saudi Aramco facilities at the oil export hub of Yanbu, in retaliation for Saudi airstrikes on Houthi positions in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital. The Saudi-led multinational coalition claimed that its air defense forces intercepted and destroyed a missile headed for Riyadh yesterday, and thwarted Houthi attacks targeting civilian and infrastructure sites in Bish, Farasan, Taif, and Yanbu. Saudi authorities did not specify whether any damage resulted from these incidents. During the attacks, two powerful explosions were heard in Riyadh, and thick black smoke rose near the main airport. According to an AFP journalist on-site, a fuel tank at a fuel storage facility near Riyadh Airport caught fire; the tank bore the Saudi Aramco logo. 2. AFP reports that, according to data released on September 20 by Iran’s Statistical Center, Iran’s GDP contracted by 10.1% year-on-year between late March and late June this year. While the reliability of official Iranian statistics remains questionable, even these figures acknowledge a 10% contraction—meaning Iran’s actual economic situation is likely worse. Both U.S. Central Command and former President Trump recently emphasized that, since the resumption of the ‘reverse blockade,’ Iran has exported ‘not a single drop’ of oil. 3. CNN reports that Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba recently stated publicly at a press conference that Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force’s future development plan ‘remains open to acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.’ This statement effectively signals Japan’s intent to proceed with nuclear submarine procurement. A U.S. Navy official had just publicly suggested Japan consider nuclear-powered submarines, and the U.S. Pacific Fleet subsequently confirmed the statement. Yet, over a decade ago, if Japan had raised the issue of nuclear submarines, the U.S. would likely not have issued such overtly positive signals. Today, however, the U.S. faces an entirely different military environment in the Asia-Pacific. 4. The prominent think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently assessed that, since the start of the year, Ukrainian forces have liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers of territory and 60 settlements. Of these, the ‘Vivaldi Operation,’ launched in late May, has reclaimed approximately 125 square kilometers. With Russian bridgeheads north of Lyman now eliminated, Ukrainian troops have begun clearing Russian infiltration units from residential areas northeast and east of Lyman, and completed troop concentration in forested areas southeast of Stavky. 5. According to Ukraine’s Ukrayinska Pravda, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis announced after meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the Carpathian Eight Summit that Romania will supply Ukraine with Patriot interceptor missiles—as part of a coordinated NATO-member effort to jointly provide such munitions. Iohannis noted Romania’s contribution will be proportionate to those of other participating nations. Additionally, both sides advanced cooperation on joint drone production, Black Sea security, and a €200-million drone procurement initiative under the EU’s SAFE framework. 6. RBC News reports that President Zelenskyy stated yesterday that Ukrainian forces launched their largest-ever aerial assault against Moscow, deploying over 2,000 drones.

Fire, smoke seen near Aramco facility in Riyadh, witness says

Oct 3, 2026

Witnesses observed fire and smoke near a Saudi Aramco facility in Riyadh amidst ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, pending official confirmation.

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