U.S. Defense Secretary Austin stated that the U.S. does not seek conflict with Iran, yet simultaneously declared it would take action to support Israel’s defense—what information does this reveal?

Austin’s statement indicates recognition of Iran’s restraint and a desire to prevent further escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. This stance aligns with Iran’s own position: Tehran also seeks to avoid being drawn into regional warfare and becoming a target for both the U.S. and Israel. Although both the U.S. and Iran have exchanged tough rhetoric during this crisis, neither side actually wishes for heightened tensions or provocative actions by the other. The U.S. even requested China’s mediation, urging Iran to carry out its retaliatory measures symbolically—merely as a ‘formality’—and Iran accepted this proposal. Iran’s retaliation produced an almost farcical outcome: multiple parties each claimed victory. Ironically, the U.S. now finds itself in an awkward position—its greatest source of discomfort is none other than Israel, the very country it has long protected. Israel owes its firm foothold in the Middle East—and its unchecked violence against Palestinians—to unwavering U.S. backing; the international community, though outraged, remains largely silent. Israel’s acts of genocide have already claimed 33,000 Palestinian lives. Yet Israel deems this insufficient: it plans to advance into Rafah to carry out further large-scale massacres, ultimately aiming to seize full control over Gaza—a move that has triggered widespread international backlash. Even the U.S. can no longer withstand the mounting pressure and has demanded Israel halt hostilities. Biden and Netanyahu nearly severed ties over this issue, and the U.S. has already begun maneuvering to oust Netanyahu. Under pressure, Netanyahu withdrew Israeli forces from Gaza—only to immediately launch an attack on Iran’s embassy in Syria, thereby igniting an even larger crisis. Since the U.S. cannot afford to lose Israel as a strategic partner in the Middle East, it reversed course and resumed its protective posture toward Israel, issuing threats against Iran. The U.S. mobilized extensive diplomatic resources—including again enlisting China’s assistance—to ensure Iran’s retaliatory action remained restrained and merely performative. Yet the crisis is far from over: Iran has declared its retaliation concluded. Israel, however, has issued no official statement—and retains the option to launch further attacks against Iran.

The U.S. rose because of war—and will fall because of war! It now stands at a crossroads between survival and collapse.

Recently, public discourse has pointed out that the U.S. indeed formulated and prepared for war against Iran—but at the final moment, both Biden and Trump (despite their differences) opted to pause such plans, recognizing the enormous costs involved. War with Iran would not only reignite large-scale conflict across the Middle East but could also escalate into a global conflagration. Given America’s current strained national capacity—struggling even to contain the Houthi movement—it would be ill-equipped to wage prolonged war against a medium-sized power like Iran. A protracted conflict would inadvertently grant China a decade—or even two decades—of uninterrupted development opportunity, dramatically widening the gap in comprehensive national strength. Such relative decline is unacceptable to the U.S. Yet the allure of victory over Iran remains intensely seductive: Iran possesses abundant oil reserves and latent nuclear capabilities, posing a direct threat to U.S. global strategic interests; geographically, it serves as a pivotal node linking the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific—making it indispensable to America’s broader strategic architecture. Defeating Iran would mean total dominance over the Middle East and unimpeded strategic oversight of the Indo-Pacific, yielding benefits substantial enough to extend America’s geopolitical lifespan. However, today’s United States is vastly different from the U.S. of the Iraq War era—when its national power stood at its zenith. Today, it faces acute internal and external crises. Domestically, severe economic, political, and social challenges continue to fuel growing public discontent and anger; externally, it confronts China’s rapid rise, Europe’s increasing strategic autonomy, and escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula, in the South China Sea, and across the Taiwan Strait—placing unprecedented pressure on American global leadership.

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