The world is plunging into an energy crisis!

In October, benchmark Dutch natural gas futures for Europe surged to a record high of €100 per megawatt-hour (MWh). British gas contracts also jumped 17.4%, hitting a record high of 252.53 pence. Over the past month, both contracts more than doubled in price. Meanwhile, European natural gas storage levels have fallen 16% below the five-year average—reaching a historic low. On October 5, German electricity futures for delivery next year broke above €150/MWh for the first time, setting a new record. According to recent data released by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office, Germany’s annual inflation rate in September rose 4.1%, with particularly sharp increases in natural gas and electricity prices; wholesale gas prices have reached an all-time high. French electricity prices hit a record high last Thursday, surging 10.3% to €135.50/MWh—equivalent to nearly $200 per barrel of oil. Starting October 1, France raised its government-regulated natural gas tariff by 12.6%, directly affecting approximately 3 million households whose contracts are tied to this pricing mechanism. This winter, tens of millions of European households may be unable to afford heating, falling into what is termed “energy poverty.” Under the EU definition, this refers to an inability to maintain a comfortable indoor temperature. Even before the pandemic, around 80 million European households struggled with energy poverty. The situation has since deteriorated further. Overall, Bulgaria and Lithuania face the worst conditions—nearly 30% of their populations live in energy poverty—while Switzerland and Norway face the lowest risk. 2. Asian panic buying of natural gas European natural gas prices have reached their highest levels in nearly a decade. This surge has triggered panic across Asia, prompting major buyers to compete fiercely for liquefied natural gas (LNG). Asian buyers—including Japan and India—are purchasing natural gas at premium prices. Bloomberg reported that Tohoku Electric Power Company of Japan and GAIL of India secured LNG cargoes for November and December 2021 this Wednesday at record seasonal highs. Asian LNG spot prices have climbed to the highest seasonal level ever recorded. Asian buyers fear competition from European customers could push Asian LNG spot prices even higher. According to Beijing News, over the past year and more, commodity prices have soared amid U.S. dollar liquidity expansion—and natural gas has emerged as the top gainer. Statistics show Asian natural gas prices have surged fivefold over the past year, while European prices have skyrocketed over 14 months…

Why has the 2021 energy shortage swept across the globe?

Although we are currently experiencing an unanticipated global energy crisis unfolding across countries, people living in China truly enjoy a fortunate situation. Recently, a pilot scheme on electricity rationing was announced—featuring electricity price adjustments—but household electricity tariffs were not raised; instead, industrial electricity prices were increased. Reflecting on this, citizens in other countries are far less fortunate. Let’s examine the United Kingdom—one of the world’s established developed nations. Though the UK experiences four distinct seasons, this winter may prove colder than previous years due to nationwide shortages of conventional energy sources—leading to widespread deficits in oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity. The government has even resorted to urging citizens to conserve energy—a rare move for a developed country, which historically achieved prosperity precisely through massive consumption of conventional energy resources. Clearly, even these advanced economies now confront serious, unsolved challenges. An energy crisis is a profound systemic crisis: oil, natural gas, and coal are critical industrial raw materials, deeply affecting every sector. Currently, shortages of natural gas, coal, and crude oil in the UK are already impacting steel production, chemical manufacturing, food processing, and livestock farming. Most visibly, pork, gasoline, milk, and pharmaceuticals have all experienced panic buying in UK markets—their supply chains are now extremely strained and fragile. By contrast, Chinese citizens living in our great motherland are truly blessed: pork prices haven’t risen—in fact, they’ve begun falling. Current market averages stand below ¥10 per jin (approx. 500g). Similarly, Germany and France in Europe are also struggling. In September just passed, Germany’s year-on-year inflation rate exceeded 4%, driven mainly by soaring natural gas and electricity prices. In France—a long-established developed nation—electricity prices continue hitting new highs. Many European citizens worry whether they can afford heating this winter—or even survive it. I recently paid my heating bill: just over ¥1,400. The ripple effects of energy shortages have already reached Asia. Japan, India, Thailand, Malaysia, and others have begun procuring natural gas at premium prices on international markets. According to Bloomberg, Tohoku Electric Power Company of Japan and GAIL of India have just purchased LNG for November and December 2021—at record-high prices. First, the most direct cause of the energy price surge is: following the pandemic outbreak, global demand rebounded sharply, led by the United States…

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