Research and Analysis Report on the Development Status, Trends, and Investment Outlook of China’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market (2026 Edition)

To accelerate the green transformation of the aviation industry, the European Union has enacted several key regulations under its 'Fit for 55' package—most notably the RefuelEU Aviation Regulation and the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). As the world’s largest aviation market—accounting for roughly one-quarter of global aviation activity—the United States has also established a relatively comprehensive policy support system for SAF. The U.S. Aviation Climate Action Plan, released in 2021, set a net-zero carbon emissions target for the aviation sector by 2050. Subsequently, the SAF Grand Challenge Roadmap established production targets of 9 million tonnes annually by 2030 and 100 million tonnes annually by 2050, thereby defining the fundamental direction and goals for SAF development. Current mainstream biomass-based SAF production pathways According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), the number of globally announced SAF plant projects has shown an overall exponential growth since 2015. In particular, 162 projects were announced in 2023 and 2024 alone—representing 58.9% of all projects announced over the past decade—indicating rapid global SAF industry development. As of December 11, 2024, a total of 352 SAF plants had been publicly announced worldwide. Excluding nine cancelled or dormant projects, 343 active SAF plant projects are underway across 54 countries. ICAO estimates their combined annual production capacity will reach 89.6 million tonnes. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global SAF production in 2024 reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion liters)—double the 2023 volume—and accounted for 0.3% of total global aviation fuel output and 11% of global renewable fuels. This output fell significantly short of earlier expectations (1.5 million tonnes), primarily due to delays in U.S. SAF production ramp-up (now pushed to the first half of 2025). By 2025, SAF production is projected to reach 2.1 million tonnes (2.7 billion liters), representing 0.7% of global aviation fuel output and 13% of global renewable fuels. Per IATA statistics, global SAF production in 2024 reached 1.25 billion liters (approximately 1 million tonnes), doubling year-on-year and demonstrating robust growth momentum. Furthermore, according to ICAO data as of June 2025, over 468 SAF projects—including operational, under-construction, and planned facilities—have been announced across 60 countries, with an aggregate projected capacity exceeding 35 million tonnes. In practical application, SAF is gradually transitioning from demonstration projects to commercial deployment, becoming a critical component of airlines’ decarbonization strategies. As of May 2025, over 850,000 commercial flights worldwide have successfully used SAF, fully validating its operational safety and technical compatibility. Additionally, more than 40 airlines globally have signed voluntary SAF procurement commitments. Combined with future policy-mandated blending requirements, the total voluntary SAF uptake is expected to reach approximately 14 million tonnes by 2030—providing long-term, stable market visibility for the SAF industry.

Trillion-yuan energy central SOEs complete restructuring; green aviation fuel becomes a strategic priority

China National Aviation Fuel Group (CNAF) is Asia’s largest integrated aviation fuel service provider—covering procurement, transportation, storage, testing, sales, and aircraft refueling. As the national ‘team’ safeguarding China’s aviation energy security, CNAF became a central enterprise directly supervised by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) in 2003 and ranks 88th among central SOEs. Public data shows that CNAF’s revenue in 2024 amounted to approximately RMB 240.66 billion. Sinopec’s core businesses focus on exploration and development, marketing, and utilization of petroleum and natural gas, as well as supply of refined oil products and chemical goods. Its strengths lie in refining and marketing infrastructure, granting it clear dominance in the downstream retail market for refined oil products. By contrast, CNAF’s business centers exclusively on aviation fuel, with all its extended operations likewise revolving around aviation fuel logistics. It holds a near-monopoly position in China’s domestic aviation fuel market—but does not engage in production itself, instead procuring fuel from refineries. Its downstream activities rarely extend beyond aviation into non-aviation retail markets. The merger of these two enterprises enables complementary advantages, helping further strengthen, optimize, and expand the aviation fuel industry and enhance overall competitiveness. From a business synergy perspective, this acquisition creates a win-win scenario for both parties. Industry insiders analyze that the consolidation of these two energy-sector ‘giants’ will generate synergies greater than the sum of their parts (i.e., 1 + 1 > 2). Post-integration, Sinopec can leverage CNAF’s distribution network to expand its share of the aviation kerosene (jet fuel) market and enter jet fuel sales channels—achieving vertical integration of production and sales. Meanwhile, CNAF gains access to more stable upstream resource supplies and strong support from Sinopec’s refining and marketing systems, reinforcing its influence in the domestic aviation fuel market and bolstering its bargaining power in international jet fuel markets. This ‘strong-into-strong’ alliance will enhance the resilience of the jet fuel industrial chain, secure aviation energy supply, and strengthen China’s international competitiveness in the aviation fuel sector. China is the world’s second-largest civil aviation market and jet fuel consumer—second only to the United States—with jet fuel accounting for approximately 10% of China’s total refined oil consumption. According to the '2026 China Energy & Chemical Industry Development Report' published by Sinopec Economics & Technology Research Institute, jet fuel has become a key growth driver within China’s future refined oil consumption structure. Standard & Poor’s forecasts that China’s jet fuel consumption will rise from 39.28 million tonnes in 2024 to 75 million tonnes by 2040. Amid China’s accelerated green and low-carbon transition, green aviation fuel is poised to become a focal point of this SOE restructuring. With concerted efforts from both central SOEs, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to experience explosive growth. Regarding low-carbon transition, Sinopec stated that the merger will help accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of the aviation industry and promote high-quality development of the SAF industry. Sinopec is China’s earliest enterprise to possess SAF production capability, while CNAF has deeply engaged in SAF application practices and plays a pivotal role in SAF promotion, ecosystem building, and related areas. Following the merger, the two companies will integrate their respective advantages in fuel R&D technologies and market supply leadership to accelerate construction of the SAF industrial and supply chains and scale up commercial operations.

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