Industrialization in Southern Africa

Foreign investment—including Chinese capital—has entered the region and developed numerous world-class mining projects, such as the Simandou iron ore deposit in Guinea and copper-cobalt mines in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The Simandou iron ore deposit, located in southeastern Guinea, is the world’s largest undeveloped open-pit hematite deposit, boasting the highest grade (iron content exceeding 65%) and total resource reserves of over 4 billion tonnes. This project constitutes a strategic landmark initiative of China-Africa cooperation, jointly developed by Baowu Group, Chinalco Group, Rio Tinto, and Winning Consortium. Simandou ranks among the world’s highest-grade and largest-scale mining projects, with a total investment exceeding USD 20 billion covering integrated infrastructure including mines, railways, and ports. The delivered phase includes over 600 kilometers of newly built multi-purpose cross-Guinean railway and associated port facilities. The project officially commenced operations in November 2025; upon full capacity, annual output will reach 120 million tonnes—significantly reducing China’s dependence on iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil. [60] [61] The Mingomba Copper Mine project in Zambia will cost over USD 2.3 billion, making it one of the largest investments ever undertaken in the country. Upon commissioning, the mine will produce over 300,000 tonnes of copper annually, ranking it among Africa’s top-tier copper mines. [62] Huagang Mining’s copper-cobalt project in the DRC holds proven reserves of 8.68 million tonnes of metallic copper—a world-class mega-deposit. Huagang Mining Co., Ltd. invested USD 6.7 billion in the project, representing the largest non-energy-related Chinese investment in Africa to date. [63] African countries have also recognized that exporting raw, unprocessed minerals undermines domestic industrialization. Consequently, many have introduced mineral export bans mandating foreign enterprises to process resources locally and thereby increase their share of value-added along the supply chain. According to media reports, over ten African countries enacted mineral export bans within the past year, aiming to compel foreign investors to establish local processing plants: — In February 2025, the DRC implemented a ban on cobalt ore exports; the ban was lifted in October 2025 and replaced with an annual export quota system. — In June 2025, Gabon announced a complete ban on manganese ore exports effective January 1, 2029. — Also in June 2025, Rwanda suspended issuance of new mineral trading licenses to review and improve existing industry regulations—covering tin, beryllium, lithium, and others. — In October 2025, Malawi’s President issued an immediate nationwide ban on all raw mineral exports, including lithium, rare earths, graphite, gold, and copper. — In November 2025, Guinea raised its bauxite export tariff to 10% and mandated establishment of alumina refineries. — In January 2026, Zambia enacted ‘localization regulations’ requiring mining companies to raise local procurement of core goods and services to at least 40% within specified timeframes. — In February 2026, Ghana’s President Mahama announced plans to halt exports of all unprocessed minerals—including manganese, bauxite, and iron ore—by 2030. — Also in February 2026, Zimbabwe advanced enforcement of its export ban, suspending all lithium ore and concentrate exports effective February 25, including strict controls over cargo already en route. — In March 2026, Senegal revoked 71 mining licenses en masse, covering various domestic mineral resources.

Africa’s Frenzied Emulation of Indonesia: Locking Down Mineral Exports

Over the past one to two years, a ‘mineral-lockdown wave’ has been spreading across the African continent. An increasing number of countries are closely studying Indonesia’s success story and directly banning raw mineral exports—using administrative measures to compel foreign investors to build smelting and refining facilities domestically and retain industrial profits within national borders. (Xinhua News Agency) Superficial data indeed appear highly attractive. After Zimbabwe halted lithium concentrate exports in February 2026, its first-quarter mineral export volumes rose only 27%, yet export revenue surged 79%—lithium export income doubled outright. Ghana has explicitly pledged to end all raw mineral exports by 2030; the DRC, holding roughly 70% of the world’s cobalt resources, shifted to a quota system prioritizing allocation to firms committing to local smelting investments; Guinea intends to regulate bauxite exports to force foreign capital into alumina projects; Malawi, Mozambique, and Kenya have successively introduced various mineral export control bills. Within just one year, more than ten African nations have joined this strategic contest. Their role model is Indonesia. When Indonesia imposed an outright ban on nickel ore exports, it compelled overseas capital to localize smelting capacity. Within several years, Indonesia transformed from a raw-material exporter into a global leader controlling over 40% of refined nickel production. Its mineral export value multiplied several times over, generating substantial local employment. This narrative has been widely disseminated across numerous media outlets. Witnessing Indonesia’s tangible gains, African countries—long confined to meager mining royalties—find it difficult not to be inspired. From the perspective of African governments, their demands are readily understandable. For decades, vast quantities of minerals were extracted and shipped abroad immediately. A tonne of bauxite sold locally fetched less than USD 50, whereas processed into alumina it commanded USD 300—and further refined into aluminum, over USD 2,000. The overwhelming majority of value-added accrued overseas, while domestic economies received only resource royalties and low-skill mining jobs, perpetuating the ‘resource curse.’ Amid the global clean-energy boom, the strategic value of lithium, cobalt, and manganese has skyrocketed; possessing scarce resources naturally motivates these countries to seek greater bargaining power. In the short term, mineral-lockdown policies do yield quick wins: restricting raw mineral outflows lifts prices for primary commodities, incentivizes foreign capital to invest in local processing plants, rapidly boosts government revenues, and creates some new industrial jobs domestically. This is precisely why many online commentators remain optimistic about Africa replicating Indonesia’s path. Yet much of this discourse overlooks profound objective disparities between the two contexts—naively equating ‘locking down minerals’ with ‘industrial upgrading.’ This is the gravest misconception. Indonesia’s success was never attributable solely to an export ban. As early as 2014, Indonesia attempted an outright mineral export ban—but domestic smelting capacity proved insufficient, causing sharp declines in export earnings and unemployment among 30,000 miners. The policy had to be relaxed, delivering a sobering lesson. (UNCTAD) What truly enabled Indonesia’s breakthrough was the prior presence of large-scale foreign investment willing to bring mature technologies and massive capital into the country, coupled with relatively robust supporting infrastructure—including electricity and port facilities—as well as extended policy transition periods allowing step-by-step development of integrated smelting clusters. Success did not materialize overnight upon announcement of the ban; factories did not spring up magically.

Ghana Plans to Ban Raw Mineral Exports by 2030, President Says

23 hours ago

Ghana aims to ban raw mineral exports by 2030 to spur domestic industrialization, President Mahama announced. The policy targets gold, lithium, and other ores, following similar moves across Africa to retain value locally.

bloomberg

2026-10-19

Ghana Plans to Ban Raw Mineral Exports by 2030, President Says

Ghana Plans to Ban Raw Mineral Exports by 2030, President Says

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