The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has officially banned exports of copper and cobalt concentrates; 70% of global cobalt supply will be affected, and international copper prices have surged accordingly—what impacts will this generate?

Fellows, LME copper prices have already reached USD 14,369—just 4.4% short of USD 15,000. CITIC Securities today declared that 'the copper sector is entering a phase of synchronized valuation and earnings growth,' signaling markedly accelerating market sentiment. But let me tell you: the DRC’s export ban is merely an emotional catalyst—real supply-side fundamentals are the hard determinant of how far copper prices can go. The DRC Ban: A Rehashed Story—with One New Detail On August 6, the DRC once again banned copper concentrate exports. This script has played out before—in 2013, 2019, and 2023—each time featuring cycles of bans followed by exemptions, all justified under the banner of 'promoting domestic processing.' This time, there’s one new detail: the ban includes a 'one-year export exemption clause' applicable under 'strategic circumstances,' subject to application. In plain terms: major mining operators are highly likely to secure such exemptions. So the copper price’s sharp spike on the day of the announcement reflected more emotional resonance than a fundamental shift. Guoxin Futures calls this the 'resource-country-led pricing phase'—a lofty-sounding phrase that, in reality, means the DRC government is asserting its authority vis-à-vis the M23 armed group, issuing the ban to signal to the world: 'I am the rightful sovereign.' Yet M23 continues fighting—and the Chinese embassy still urges evacuations. Between a piece of paper and an armed non-state actor—who holds real sway? You decide. What Matters More Than the DRC: Cobre Panama May Be Returning This is the first 'fresh perspective' I want to highlight today. Cobre Panama—a massive copper mine in Panama—was forcibly shut down by the Panamanian government at the end of 2023. With annual output of roughly 350,000 tonnes of copper, it accounts for about 1.5% of global supply. Its restart would represent the single largest near-term source of incremental copper supply globally. Latest developments: Panama’s government is considering establishing a state-owned mining company to pursue a public-private partnership with First Quantum Minerals to restart operations. First Quantum is already accelerating preparations—the mine currently holds approximately 38 million tonnes of stockpiled ore, containing roughly 70,000 tonnes of recoverable copper, sufficient to support 12 months of production. The company maintains its 2026 copper production guidance of 30,000–40,000 tonnes, all derived from processing existing stockpiles. Restarting full operations requires roughly USD 250 million in operating capital, and a government committee is evaluating whether a full-scale restart can be achieved before year-end. What does this mean? If Cobre Panama fully resumes production in 2027, it will add 350,000 tonnes of copper annually. Goldman Sachs estimates a non-U.S. market deficit of 640,000 tonnes in 2026—so this single mine could fill over half that gap. Its restart timeline represents the biggest 'downside risk' to copper markets over the next 12 months—yet almost no one is discussing it. Bullish narratives never mention Panama. Something Strange Is Happening in the Scrap Copper Market Second 'fresh perspective': The tighter copper concentrate supply becomes, the more fiercely scrap copper is contested—yet scrap copper itself is also becoming scarce. Companies widely report that 'recycled copper feedstock is extremely tight this year,' with high-quality scrap copper 'snapped up the moment it arrives'; buyers even station themselves permanently at trading markets to secure supplies. Why? Copper concentrate treatment charges (TCs) have plunged to negative USD 125 per tonne, rendering concentrate unaffordable for smelters—forcing them to pivot toward scrap copper. But scrap copper isn’t abundant either: globally tradable scrap supply remains persistently tight, and inventories of freely available scrap copper in major consuming regions—including China, Japan, South Korea, and India—are generally at low levels. Domestic scrap copper recycling invoice management in China has tightened significantly, while import-based supplementation remains limited: domestic scrap-copper-to-blister-copper output in May fell 39% below its peak level earlier this year.

Goldman Sachs convened a closed-door meeting with 10 major copper mining companies—what signals did it convey?

This article is sourced from a Goldman Sachs report, translated by the Poker Finance editorial team. The energy transition is driving ravenous copper demand, yet ore grades at aging mines continue declining—this trillion-dollar market now stands at a delicate crossroads. Last week, Goldman Sachs gathered decision-makers from the world’s 10 largest copper mining companies: Antofagasta, Freeport-McMoRan, First Quantum Minerals… names controlling the bulk of global copper supply were all present. At this closed-door meeting, executives reached an uncommon consensus: copper’s 'scarcity narrative' is shifting from expectation into reality. Yet simultaneously, they displayed extraordinary caution regarding capital expenditures—a new mine often demands investments exceeding USD 10 billion, prompting industry giants to adopt unusually frugal, meticulous investment strategies. Can Panama’s giant copper mine—which once shook global copper markets—be revived this year? And in North America’s hyper-competitive, cost-optimized market, what levers remain to squeeze out even marginal additional profit? This 10,000-word meeting summary outlines the critical clues determining future copper price trajectories. Key Meeting Highlights We hosted our Annual Global Copper Week Conference from June 29 to July 1, welcoming senior executives from 10 global copper producers: Antofagasta, Capstone Copper, Ero Copper, First Quantum Minerals, Freeport-McMoRan, Hudbay Minerals, Lundin Mining, Southern Copper, Teck Resources (not covered), and Vale Base Metals (a Vale subsidiary). Discussions underscored a constructive outlook for the copper market, driven by structural supply scarcity, declining ore grades, infrastructure constraints, and disciplined capital allocation. Producers’ growth strategies center on brownfield expansions, selective greenfield projects, and technology-driven productivity enhancements—including leaching, automation, and processing upgrades. Key catalysts include: Antofagasta’s Centinela expansion project; Capstone Copper’s final investment decision on Santo Domingo; resolution of First Quantum’s Cobre Panama issues; Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine output ramp-up; Ero Copper’s Tucuma project ramp-up; and progress by Hudbay, Lundin, Southern Copper, Teck, and Vale Base Metals on their respective major copper project pipelines. Management emphasized balance-sheet discipline, attention to social license to operate, cost control, and strategic partnerships—all vital to achieving growth while managing inflationary pressures, permitting risks, execution challenges, and financing uncertainties. Antofagasta Speaker: Ivan Arriagada, CEO Antofagasta (target price: GBP 46 per share; U.S. market cap: USD 51 billion; Buy rating—covered by Matt Greene) is a pure-play copper producer operating four copper mines in Chile, with projected 2025 copper output of approximately 650,000 tonnes. Copper Market & Industry Trends: Management stressed that the copper industry continues facing structural headwinds. Although major underground mines encountered technical challenges over the past year, declining ore grades remain the key challenge across Antofagasta’s open-pit operations—alongside maintaining plant throughput capacity and securing/expanding infrastructure for critical inputs such as water and energy.

Giant Panama Copper Mine Gets Pathway to Temporary Restart

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Panama ministers suggested a temporary restart for the idled Cobre Panama mine to fund eventual closure, impacting global copper supply. Market reactions included a 37% drop in First Quantum shares and a spike in copper prices.

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Giant Panama Copper Mine Gets Pathway to Temporary Restart

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