Why is China expected to set a record for aluminum exports amid the global aluminum rally?

The global aluminum rally—driven by Middle East war–related supply disruptions and an international market deficit—has widened the price gap between the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai futures to its steepest level since March 2022, making exports more profitable. Although domestic prices in China have risen due to the LME surge, China remains largely immune to the global shortage because it is the world’s largest producer and faces slowing economic growth and tepid domestic demand. This combination of elevated international prices, relatively weak local consumption, and strong overseas orders—especially for export-exempt aluminum rods used in power grids and alloys for wheels—has already pushed April exports to 598,000 tons (up 15% MoM and the highest since November 2024), with analyst Zhu Liangmin forecasting further growth to over 680,000 tons in the coming months.

What specific aluminum products are driving China's export surge, and why are they exempt from recent export rebate tightening?

Aluminum rods for power grids and alloys used in wheels are seeing particular export demand, according to analyst Zhu Liangmin. These products are exempted from China’s recent tightening of export rebates—a policy shift that typically discourages exports by reducing tax refunds on exported goods—meaning producers of these items retain full or higher rebates, improving their competitiveness and profitability in overseas markets. This targeted exemption supports strategic infrastructure and high-value manufacturing sectors, aligning with China’s industrial policy priorities while enabling rapid export scaling amid strong global demand.

Global Aluminum Rally Could Draw Record Exports From China

May 26, 2026

Global aluminum prices surge amid Middle East supply disruptions, driving record Chinese exports despite capped domestic consumption. Fabricators in Henan operate at full capacity for products like battery foil as London Metal Exchange hits four-year highs.

bloomberg

2026-05-26

Global Aluminum Rally Could Draw Record Exports From China

Global Aluminum Rally Could Draw Record Exports From China

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