Bypassing the Strait of Hormuz: Saudi oil exports have 'recovered by more than half'—but can this 'Plan B' hold?

After the Strait of Hormuz was nearly sealed off, Saudi Arabia has restored its oil exports to over 60% of pre-war levels by leveraging a 45-year-old pipeline traversing the heart of the desert—a critical buffer channel against what the International Energy Agency (IEA) has termed 'the largest supply disruption in the history of oil markets.' Yet this detour is no smooth road to safety; it merely shifts risk from one chokepoint to another. According to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, crude oil exports from Yanbu—the Saudi Red Sea port—averaged approximately 4.19 million barrels per day (bpd) over the past five days, roughly 60% of Saudi Arabia’s pre-war daily export total of about 7 million bpd. This marks a sharp increase from Yanbu’s pre-war average of around 1.4 million bpd, with daily peaks having hit 4.65 million bpd on three separate occasions. According to Reuters’ citation of LSEG shipping data, Yanbu’s loading volume is projected to rise to a record 3.8 million bpd in March; at present, at least 32 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) and Suezmax tankers are queuing offshore Yanbu awaiting loading, with more vessels en route. Saudi Arabia is the only major Gulf oil producer possessing a sizable alternative export route. Its East-West Pipeline boasts a maximum throughput capacity of 7 million bpd, enabling the Kingdom to sustain exports relatively independently while neighboring producers such as Iraq and Kuwait are forced to slash output significantly. Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, confirmed in early March that the pipeline would reach full capacity within days. The core vulnerability of this 'Plan B' lies in shifting the geopolitical exposure of oil exports—from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. Much of the Yemeni coastline along this narrow waterway is controlled by the Houthi movement. Analysts warn that if the Houthis become involved in the current conflict and interfere with Yanbu Port or the Bab al-Mandab, global energy markets could face renewed pressure. Pipeline Acceleration: Chemicals Enable a 'Maximum Sprint' The alternative route now deployed by Saudi Arabia is the East-West Pipeline, built in 1981. Its original purpose was precisely to counteract the Gulf ‘tanker war’ during the Iran-Iraq War—designed as a contingency route should the Strait of Hormuz become inoperable. Spanning approximately 1,200 kilometers across the desert interior, the pipeline terminates at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Its total throughput capacity stands at 7 million bpd, of which roughly 5 million bpd is available for export, with the remainder supplying domestic refineries. To rapidly push beyond physical limits, Aramco has adopted additional measures. According to Reuters’ citation of two industry insiders, Aramco is injecting a chemical known as a 'drag-reducing agent' (DRA) into the pipeline—a technology that reduces internal fluid friction resistance and boosts flow by over 30%. This technique was widely employed by European operators during the shock of Russian oil sanctions. The sources indicated that Saudi Arabia currently holds ample DRA reserves. Export Surge: Saudi Arabia Alone Commands the 'Backup Route' Latest data show tangible early results from this detour.

Saudi Aramco: Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens today, the market will struggle to recover immediately; delays of several weeks would extend the supply shock into next year.

Saudi Aramco’s quarterly profit surged 26%, yet its CEO issued a stark warning: even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, it will take months for oil markets to return to normal; if the blockade persists for several more weeks, the supply shock could extend into 2027. On Sunday, Saudi Aramco released its first-quarter 2026 financial results, reporting an adjusted net profit of $33.6 billion—up 26% year-on-year and exceeding analysts’ consensus estimate of $31.2 billion. CEO Amin Nasser attributed this strong performance to the East-West Pipeline operating at full capacity. The pipeline reached its maximum throughput capacity of 7 million bpd in the first quarter, bypassing the Iranian-blockaded Strait of Hormuz and delivering crude to Red Sea export terminals. In his statement, Amin Nasser said: 'Our East-West Pipeline has proven itself a critical artery of supply, helping mitigate the impact of the global energy shock and supporting customers affected by shipping restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz.' Amin Nasser further warned: 'If trade and shipping disruptions persist beyond several weeks, supply interruptions are expected to continue, and markets may not normalize until 2027.' Tensions at the Strait Continue; New Attacks Occur A ceasefire agreement officially entered into force on April 8, yet frictions have persisted into this weekend. According to CCTV, on April 10, the UAE Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that the UAE’s air defense systems successfully detected and intercepted two drones launched from Iranian territory. The statement added that no casualties resulted from the incident. According to CCTV, the Kuwait Armed Forces posted on social media on April 10 stating that several 'hostile' drones had entered Kuwaiti airspace that day and had been 'dealt with according to established procedures.'

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Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned global oil stockpiles are critically low due to Strait of Hormuz risks, noting emergency releases won't resolve long-term supply imbalances. Replenishment could take two years, sustaining Brent crude prices near $100 per barrel.

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