According to the IEA, what is causing the deepening global oil supply gap in 2026?

The IEA states that the global 2026 oil supply gap will deepen due to the delayed return of normal Gulf flows, which is a direct consequence of the lack of progress in ending the Iran war—extending disruptions into 2027 and contributing to soaring fuel prices.

What role have inventories played in balancing the oil market so far, and what risks does the IEA highlight as those buffers shrink?

According to the IEA, inventories have 'so far played a crucial role in balancing the market'; however, with 'buffers shrinking and the global refining system stretched to the limit', the agency warns that resolving the Middle East conflict—and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year—is 'greater than ever' to prevent further market tightening.

Global 2026 oil supply gap to deepen on delayed return of normal Gulf flows, IEA says

Sep 11, 2026

The IEA forecasts a deepening global oil supply gap by 2026 due to delayed Middle East flows, causing soaring fuel prices as inventories shrink and refining capacity strains.

reuters

2026-05-13

Europe Falling Short on Replacing Middle East Jet Fuel Imports, IEA Says

2026-09-11

Global 2026 oil supply gap to deepen on delayed return of normal Gulf flows, IEA says

Global 2026 oil supply gap to deepen on delayed return of normal Gulf flows, IEA says

FAQ