According to the IEA, how much will global oil supply fall short of demand in 2026, and how does this compare to previous forecasts?

The IEA forecasts that global oil supply will fall 1.78 million barrels per day (bpd) below total demand in 2026 — a dramatic reversal from its previous forecast of a 410,000 bpd surplus last month and a nearly 4 million bpd surplus in its December report.

What is the IEA's assessment of the scale and cause of the current oil supply disruption?

The IEA attributes the unprecedented supply shock to the Iran war, stating that cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels and that more than 14 million bpd of oil is now shut in, largely due to restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Global oil supply to plunge below demand this year on Iran war, IEA says

May 13, 2026

The IEA warns global oil supply will fall short of demand this year due to the Iran war disrupting Middle East production, citing cumulative losses exceeding 1 billion barrels. Forecasts now project a supply deficit in 2026 amid demand destruction from price spikes.

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