Why does Goldman Sachs predict the global diesel supply shortage will persist through next year?

Goldman Sachs predicts the global diesel supply shortage will persist through next year due to sustained disruptions in refining capacity caused by attacks on refineries in the Middle East and Russia, which have further compressed an already tight global refining system; as a result,成品油出货量 remains at only 40% of pre-war levels despite crude oil exports recovering to 70–80%, and refinery shutdowns are running 60% above seasonal norms — all while diesel remains 'the core' of the current price surge and inventories continue to decline even amid some demand softening.

How has Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for diesel refining margins in the U.S. and EU, and what does this indicate about profitability?

Goldman Sachs has more than doubled its diesel refining margin forecasts: raising the U.S. projection from $27 per barrel to $63 per barrel by 2027, and the EU average from $19 to $49 per barrel — reflecting historically rare profitability driven by extreme cracks (the price spread between refined diesel and crude oil), which exceeded $100 per barrel in early August in the U.S., underscoring unprecedented refining earnings amid constrained supply and resilient demand.

Goldman Sachs Predicts Global Diesel Supply Shortage to Persist Through Next Year

Sep 2, 2026

Goldman Sachs reports global diesel supply shortages will persist into next year due to geopolitical conflicts and refinery outages, driving refining margins to record highs. The bank forecasts significant profit increases for US and EU refiners by 2027 amidst tightening inventory levels.

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Goldman Sachs Predicts Global Diesel Supply Shortage to Persist Through Next Year

Goldman Sachs Predicts Global Diesel Supply Shortage to Persist Through Next Year

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