March 27, 2021: Let’s first discuss GEM.

GEM Analysis and Outlook Currently, interpretations of GEM offered by major influencers across various platforms fail to satisfy me—so I’ve decided to write my own. Since speculative capital entered with a limit-up two weeks ago, the stock has been driven entirely by such short-term trading activity. It is common knowledge that the cost basis for this speculative capital lies above RMB 8.57; unless they exit en masse with significant volume, this point will no longer be emphasized going forward. For this main speculative force to exit profitably, they must either cut losses on high volume—or push the price up by roughly 15%, i.e., above RMB 9.80, thereby creating sufficient room for distribution. At its current level, GEM faces far less resistance moving upward than downward. Although selling pressure appears heavy below RMB 10.00, once the price breaks through that psychological barrier and initiates a strong upward wave, follow-on buying interest will flood in—and the main players can easily exit profitably. I previously noted in the comment section that, should the broader market rebound, GEM could lead the first tier of stocks. While other new-energy-related stocks are merely experiencing oversold rebounds, GEM possesses genuine potential for a sustained primary uptrend—making its appeal self-evident. Thus, on Friday, funds with sharp market instincts had already begun front-running and accumulating shares ahead of time: large, medium, and small capital inflows appeared repeatedly throughout the morning session.

GEM’s stock price has turned into a downtrend, and its market performance has hit a bottleneck.

On stock market charts, some stocks instantly reveal whether they’re trading near their lows or highs; others clearly show whether they’re trending upward or downward… With GEM’s latest closing price at RMB 9.90, its chart pattern now exhibits a clear downtrend. Moreover, this current price sits squarely within a historically high zone relative to its previous peak. Judging solely from these two aspects, GEM’s future price action faces notable headwinds. When a stock’s daily candlestick chart shows a persistent downtrend, it signals that downward momentum has become entrenched—and cannot be reversed in the short term. Take Sany Heavy Industry as an example: its chart displays a pronounced downtrend; although occasional rebounds occur, their strength remains feeble—fleeting and insignificant. In contrast, an uptrend reflects sustained bullish momentum. GEM’s prior uptrend generated a substantial profit base—from RMB 4.37 to RMB 13.99 (adjusted for rights issues). That represents over a threefold increase in price, prompting institutional investors—who reaped sizable gains—to aggressively sell. This triggered a correction. Once a downtrend becomes established, sellers rush to lock in profits, creating cascading selling pressure that reinforces the trend. Once formed, such trends are difficult to reverse—not because fundamentals have changed, but because they reflect collective behavioral psychology. GEM’s core businesses include the recycling of spent cobalt, nickel, tungsten, and electronic waste; production and sales of cobalt-nickel powder materials, battery materials, tungsten carbide, precious metals (e.g., gold and silver), copper, and plastic-wood composite profiles.

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