Looking back at 2024 and ahead to 2025: What are the trends in the international oil and gas market?

More than 20 drilling rigs operated by Daqing Drilling are currently working in the eastern part of the South San District, Saertu Oilfield. Photo by Wu Tianyong. In 2025, the demand and supply landscape of the global oil market will continue undergoing profound changes, presenting increasingly severe challenges. On the demand side, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank generally forecast global economic growth of approximately 2.7% in 2025—significantly lower than the 3% average annual growth rate recorded between 2001 and 2019. This indicates that although the global economy is recovering, its pace remains sluggish. Such tepid recovery casts a shadow over oil demand growth: although global oil demand is expected to rebound in 2025, forecasts from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC indicate that the year-on-year increase in global oil demand will be markedly lower than in 2023—especially in advanced economies, where oil consumption growth will slow substantially. Supply-side headwinds are equally concerning. Although the 'OPEC+' alliance announced in early December 2024 that it would extend its voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day—originally set to expire at the end of December—until the end of March 2025, and postponed the full termination of cuts to December 2026, this measure alone is insufficient to reverse the global oil supply surplus anticipated for 2025. First, overproduction by certain 'OPEC+' members—including Russia, Iraq, and Kazakhstan—may undermine the effectiveness of the agreed cuts. Second, additional output growth from non-'OPEC+' countries such as the United States, Canada, and Guyana will challenge 'OPEC+'’s ability to maintain market balance. The IEA projects that global oil supply will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025 (compared to just 630,000 bpd in 2024). Overall, the oil market’s supply-demand structure will gradually shift from the tight balance observed in 2024 toward a looser equilibrium. This relatively loose global oil supply-demand balance is unfavorable for sustaining high oil prices. Industry consensus anticipates a subdued oil price environment in 2025. Reuters forecasts the average Brent crude price at USD 76.61 per barrel in 2025—significantly lower than the 2024 average of USD 80.55 per barrel; JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs project average Brent prices of USD 73 and USD 76 per barrel, respectively. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) aligns closely with these projections, estimating that the average Brent price may reach USD 74 per barrel in the second half of 2025. It should be noted that geopolitical factors remain critical variables influencing international oil prices. Political instability in oil-producing nations, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Hamas war, and great-power strategic competition could all trigger oil supply disruptions or reductions in export volumes—leading to price volatility. Moreover, shifts in U.S. energy policy following the U.S. presidential election—particularly under a Trump-led administration—could significantly impact global oil supply dynamics and price trends. Tightening Gas Supply-Demand Balance: International Gas Prices Likely to Fluctuate at Elevated Levels A clustered shale gas well pad in southern Sichuan. Photo by Wang Zidan. Amid the downturn in the international oil market, expectations for the natural gas market remain high. Amid complex international conditions and evolving demand patterns, where is the natural gas market headed?

Overseas Oil & Gas Industry Insights – Part 1: LNG Development Prospects in Suriname and Guyana

A new column is here! I plan to launch a dedicated column focusing on insights into the overseas oil and gas industry, covering hot topics including new energy, frontier exploration, and LNG. Recent conversations with business managers and interviewers have made me realize that many fresh graduates—especially those without petroleum-related academic backgrounds—have significant knowledge gaps regarding fundamental industry concepts in overseas oil and gas operations. This gap unintentionally creates an impression of insufficient familiarity with the role. To help you better prepare for interviews and deepen your industry understanding, I’ll publish updates weekly, offering a rapid overview of cutting-edge developments across the overseas oil and gas sector. If you’re interested in this field, please follow my column—we’ll explore together and grow together! I look forward to engaging with you—and let’s navigate the vast ocean of the oil and gas industry together! Although nearly 200 million tons per year of LNG supply capacity is currently under construction globally, pre-FID (pre-Final Investment Decision) LNG projects totaling 105 million tons per year will still be needed by 2035. Low-cost LNG from the United States and Qatar will fill most of this gap, yet other suppliers will continue seeking alternative sources. According to Wood Mackenzie, the breakeven price for LNG projects in Guyana and Suriname stands at approximately USD 6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) (FOB, NPV10), comparable to recently approved and pre-FID projects. These two more mature projects could collectively add 12 million tons per year of LNG supply. Meanwhile, national governments will consider options for onshore gas delivery to support gas-intensive industries and meet rising electricity demand. Guyana’s existing gas pipeline is scheduled to enter service in 2025, supplying 50 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of gas to a 300-MW power plant. A second-phase expansion—including a 250-MW power plant and an NGL facility consuming 75 MMcf/d—is also under evaluation.

Guyana May Scale Back LNG Plans as Exxon Needs More Gas for Its Wells, Sources Say

17 hours ago

ExxonMobil has informed Guyana it needs more offshore gas for oil production than expected, potentially reducing LNG export capacity. Officials are considering scaling back the Fulcrum LNG project to prioritize domestic power and petrochemical facilities.

reuters

2026-08-18

Guyana Now Entitled to Nearly 40% of Production from Oil Block, President Says

2026-08-23

ExxonMobil Suspends Guyana Liza Unity Operations After Small Fire

2026-09-09

Angola's ANPG, ExxonMobil and Block 15 partners announce new offshore discovery

2026-10-13

Guyana May Scale Back LNG Plans as Exxon Needs More Gas for Its Wells, Sources Say

Guyana May Scale Back LNG Plans as Exxon Needs More Gas for Its Wells, Sources Say

FAQ