Frequent drone strikes by Ukraine have forced nearly all oil refineries in central Russia to halt operations.

In May, Ukraine escalated its strikes further. According to Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed or damaged at least ten Russian oil refineries in the first 20 days of May alone—including facilities in Moscow, Ryazan, Perm, Kirishi, Samara, and Tuapse. Particularly notable was a sustained nighttime raid in late May, during which Ukrainian drones employed multi-wave, multi-directional, and comprehensive coverage tactics to evade Russian border air-defense systems and penetrate hundreds—up to nearly one thousand—kilometers deep into Russian territory. Over three consecutive nights, they simultaneously targeted multiple energy hubs around Moscow, Ryazan, Syzran, and Nizhny Novgorod, severely damaging 11 Russian oil refineries. I. Timeline of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries leading to shutdowns: Below is a list of major Russian oil refineries confirmed to have halted operations or sharply curtailed output since May 2026: Kirishi Refinery (KINEF) — Russia’s second-largest refinery, with an annual capacity of approximately 20 million tons, located in Leningrad Oblast and serving as the largest refining facility in northwestern Russia. During the night of May 4–5, Ukrainian drones struck the facility, damaging three of its four crude distillation units, prompting a full shutdown beginning May 5. KINEF supplies diesel to both European markets and key domestic Russian markets; its shutdown directly disrupted fuel supply chains across northwestern Russia. Ryazan Refinery — Russia’s third-largest refinery, with an annual capacity of 17 million tons. On May 15, Ukrainian drones precisely hit the area housing its main refining units (AVT-1/2/3/4 and AT-6), triggering a major fire and forcing a complete shutdown. Accounting for roughly 5% of Russia’s total refining capacity, its closure severed approximately 5% of refined product supply to central Russia. Moscow Refinery — With an annual capacity of about 12 million tons, it supplies most of the capital region’s fuel needs. Following a drone strike on May 17, the refinery suspended operations. Though damage was reportedly light, the plant opted for a precautionary shutdown and maintenance. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin acknowledged that at least five drones struck Moscow, prompting partial closure of the city’s airport. Nizhny Novgorod Federal Refinery (NORSI) — Russia’s fourth-largest refinery, with an annual capacity of 17 million tons, responsible for supplying much of Moscow’s refined products—producing roughly 5 million tons of gasoline and over 5 million tons of diesel annually. It suffered drone strikes on April 5, May 18, and May 20. Its core primary refining unit, ELOU-AVT, was struck and set ablaze. As of May 20, the refinery had ceased production and entered standby repair mode. Yaroslavl Refinery (YANOS) — A major Russian refining enterprise. After being struck on May 8, it virtually halted gasoline sales and reduced diesel sales by 60%, operating at only about one-quarter of its nominal capacity. Additionally, the Perm Refinery (annual capacity: 12.6 million tons) fully halted operations after being struck on May 7; the Tuapse Refinery suspended operations following its fourth strike at the end of April; and the Syzran Refinery was struck twice—on April 18 and May 21—forcing its main refining units offline.

The International Energy Agency states Ukraine has crippled 30% of Russia’s refining capacity; Trump intervenes urgently, calling for an immediate halt.

Please remember to like and share! If you haven’t yet subscribed, please follow the account ‘Sanlang Macroeconomics’. Thank you! Summary: Ukraine’s sustained drone attacks on Russian refining infrastructure have prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to confirm that Ukraine’s drone campaign has cost Russia 30% of its refining capacity—placing global diesel supply under mounting pressure. Concerned about rising fuel prices, former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt drone strikes against Russian refineries. Yet amid escalating battlefield dynamics between Russia and Ukraine, unilaterally demanding Ukraine cease such operations is unlikely to meaningfully advance peace. I. The IEA reports that Ukrainian drone strikes have cost Russia 30% of its refining capacity. Ukraine’s persistent drone bombardment of Russian oil refineries is undermining—faster than anticipated—the fuel-processing capabilities of the world’s second-largest crude oil exporter. In its latest monthly oil report, the IEA revised downward its baseline forecast for Russian oil processing over the next 18 months to approximately 4 million barrels per day—down a full 30% from pre-war (2022) levels. Behind this figure lies a months-long, intensifying campaign of long-range strikes. The IEA’s report unusually singles out Kyiv’s drone strategy as the direct cause. It states: “Ongoing drone strikes and fragmented repair efforts are generating cumulative negative effects and worsening the condition of Russia’s refining system.” In August alone, Russian refineries endured at least 22 strikes—the highest monthly tally since the war began. Refinery throughput in August fell to roughly 3.8 million barrels per day, far below the year-earlier level of about 5 million barrels per day. In other words, Ukraine is systematically dismantling Russia’s decades-old refining infrastructure using low-cost drones. The severity is compounded by sanctions, which have left Russia largely unable to repair the damage. International sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector restrict access to replacement equipment. Drones now target secondary refining units—equipment whose replacement requires six to eight months. The IEA candidly admits even this “more conservative assessment” may underestimate the true depth of distress confronting Russia’s refining complex. As winter approaches and parts procurement timelines lengthen, pressure on Russia’s fuel system will only intensify. Ukraine’s strike capabilities are also rapidly evolving. The IEA observes that Ukrainian forces increasingly deploy multi-wave drone attacks against single targets—overwhelming Russian defense networks and air-defense systems—and that strike precision is markedly improving. Russia is already experiencing severe fuel shortages, with gas stations facing long queues; it has even resorted to importing gasoline from South Korea and Turkey, and repurchasing fuel refined in India from its own exported crude. For a country once proud of its status as a major global exporter of refined products, this turn of events is deeply ironic. II. Trump urges Zelenskyy to halt drone strikes on Russian refineries, claiming Ukraine’s attacks on Russian diesel “harm the world.” Just as Ukraine’s drone campaign yields ever-greater results, a sudden call for restraint came from across the Atlantic. On September 13, while attending a golf tournament in Ireland, Trump told reporters: “Mr. Zelenskyy needs to do one thing: he must stop destroying Russia’s diesel reserves.” He added that Ukraine could strike “many other targets—but not diesel,” because such attacks “are harming the entire world.”

Half of Russia's top diesel-producing refineries cut back output after drone strikes

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Half of Russia's top diesel refineries reduced or halted output due to drone strikes, forcing export restrictions and raising global prices. The IEA reports frequent attacks, disrupting supply chains critical for agriculture and transport.

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