Besides disrupting global energy transportation, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has also sharply reduced trade in fertilizer raw materials such as urea and sulfur. How would this affect global food production?

I’ve wanted to address this issue for the past couple of days. If the Strait of Hormuz remains locked in a stalemate, oil—though problematic—is relatively manageable: when oil prices rise, people can simply walk or cycle instead. Higher fuel costs may ripple through other sectors, driving up product prices—but we can cope by cutting back and spending more frugally. What truly threatens the world, however, is the fertilizer crisis! Today’s agriculture relies almost entirely on chemical fertilizers. Without them, grain yields plummet—and mass starvation becomes a real possibility! Take Egypt as an example: its domestic grain output meets only about 30% of its population’s needs; the rest depends entirely on imports. When I visited Egypt, local tourism staff told me this—and my head instantly buzzed with alarm. Ever since childhood, my grandmother recounted stories of the ‘Low-Standard Era’—as Chinese people, we’re acutely sensitive to food shortages. Egypt has a population of 100 million—and countries like Egypt are not isolated cases. If global grain production declines and food shortages emerge, what then??? Should widespread hunger and chaos erupt worldwide, remember this: justice has its due target, and responsibility has its rightful bearer—the United States and Israel are the chief culprits!

The West: 'How dare China stockpile grain?!'

The Strait of Hormuz has finally reopened—for 60 days, during which no transit fees will be charged. Whether it stays open for the full 60 days remains uncertain. Israel is watching closely from the sidelines: one order from Netanyahu could trigger new explosions in Lebanon or Iran, instantly reverting the situation to square one. Still, for now at least, merchant vessels from around the world can queue up and pass through the strait. Bear in mind: the Strait of Hormuz is not merely the lifeline for Middle Eastern crude oil—it is also the invisible lifeline for global agriculture. Approximately 30% of globally traded fertilizers—and nearly half of all urea—depend on supply and shipping routes originating from this region. During the months the strait was blocked, fertilizer shipments plunged over 90%, while fertilizer prices surged by 50% to 80%. Even more tragically, the damage inflicted on global food production by this fertilizer shortage manifests with a time lag. Crude oil shortages can be mitigated using strategic reserves and existing inventories—but crops follow strict biological clocks. Miss the planting season, and the loss is irreversible. The strait’s closure coincided precisely with critical spring planting periods across numerous countries in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. From India and Bangladesh to multiple African nations, hundreds of millions of farmers—unable to afford or even access fertilizers—were forced to drastically cut application rates during sowing, or even switch entirely to low-yield marginal crops. Thus, even though the strait has reopened and fertilizer-carrying vessels are now en route, a broad-scale global grain harvest shortfall this autumn is now virtually inevitable. The World Food Programme has already sounded the alarm on hunger: over 40 million people across Africa and the Middle East—regions long plagued by instability—are sliding toward severe food insecurity. Everyone knows the United States bears primary responsibility for this global food crisis. Yet Americans see it differently. As the self-proclaimed ‘world police,’ how could the U.S. possibly bear responsibility? In fact, scapegoats have already been pre-selected. On May 12, former World Bank President David Malpass told the BBC that China must immediately halt stockpiling grain and fertilizers and proactively release its reserves to ease the global supply crisis. In fact, Western media campaigns targeting China began much earlier. As soon as the conflict erupted in March—and fertilizer prices spiked by 21%—multiple Western outlets reframed the incident: shifting its characterization from a ‘geopolitical conflict’s secondary impact’ to ‘China weaponizing resources.’ Some geopolitical think tanks even coined a new term in their spring reports: ‘resource nationalism,’ accusing China of restricting fertilizer exports to safeguard domestic spring planting and food security—‘using supply chains as leverage and sacrificing international markets to insulate itself from pressure.’ They relentlessly target China’s disaster-preparedness grain reserves—yet utter not a single word about the true instigators. This isn’t the first time the West, posing as ‘moral arbiters’ on food security, has tried to fleece China or shift blame onto it. For instance, in 2022, global food prices surged dramatically due to excessive U.S. dollar issuance and geopolitical conflicts. On one side stood Western countries—eschewing costly reserves, placing blind faith in capital efficiency, and pursuing so-called ‘just-in-time supply chains’—whose domestic inflation sparked public outrage. On the other side, ordinary Chinese citizens, shielded by national policies prioritizing grain price stability, lived calmly and steadily—eating and drinking as usual. Unsurprisingly, some observers took offense. Bloomberg led the charge with an article blaming China for the food crisis—claiming that China’s national strategy of pursuing excessive grain self-sufficiency, and its alleged hoarding of over half the world’s wheat and corn, had driven up global food prices.

Hormuz Strait Conflict Poses Risks to Global Food Security

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S&P Global warns that Hormuz Strait disruptions threaten food security via energy-fertilizer supply chain links. Rising fuel and chemical costs may reduce crop yields and increase prices, particularly in import-dependent economies.

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Hormuz Strait Conflict Poses Risks to Global Food Security

Hormuz Strait Conflict Poses Risks to Global Food Security

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