What does HSBC say about the near-term impact of the UAE's departure from OPEC+ on global oil supply and markets?

HSBC expects 'limited immediate impact on oil markets' because crude exports from the Gulf remain constrained by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — effectively closed since late February — capping any near-term UAE output increase; additionally, the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz with a capacity of up to ~1.8 million barrels per day, is likely already operating at or near full utilization.

According to HSBC, what are the longer-term risks to OPEC+ following the UAE's planned exit in May 2026?

HSBC warns that the UAE's departure could 'undermine OPEC+ cohesion and credibility, making supply management more difficult to enforce', raise the risk of 'compliance slippage among remaining members', and weaken the group's ability to manage prices during periods of softer demand or rising non-OPEC supply — especially given the UAE's expanding production capacity and $150 billion investment program through 2030 aimed at monetising reserves with fewer output constraints.

HSBC sees limited near-term impact on OPEC+ from UAE's departure

Apr 28, 2026

HSBC research indicates UAE's planned 2026 exit from OPEC+ will have minimal immediate effect on oil markets due to Strait of Hormuz constraints. However, it may undermine long-term supply discipline and enable increased production capacity.

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