With the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, oil prices have surged above $103 per barrel, gold has tumbled toward $5,000 per ounce, and silver briefly fell below $80 per ounce—how should we interpret these developments?

According to independent energy and commodities pricing agency Argus Media, only two crude and refined product tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 12, down from just one the previous day—far below the historical average of 138 vessels per day. More critically, the world has exhausted all spare oil production capacity. Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold the vast majority of adjustable spare capacity—but both are effectively trapped inside the Persian Gulf, cut off from global markets. “The market has lost its effective buffer,” wrote analysts at Rapidan Energy Group, “and no oil-producing country with adjustable capacity can step in to fill the gap.” Amid escalating geopolitical tensions and a petroleum supply crisis, international oil prices surged sharply. Brent crude futures rose from a settlement price of $72.48 per barrel on February 27, breached $90, and hit an intraday high of $119.50 on March 9—the highest since 2022. Prior to this, international oil prices had crossed the $100-per-barrel threshold only three times in history. Largest-ever strategic reserve release: 400 million barrels to ‘stabilize markets’—yet still a drop in the bucket Faced with potential oil supply disruptions and runaway prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) deployed its largest available tool. On March 11, the IEA announced that its 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves—approximately 30% of the total strategic reserves held by IEA members. This volume is equivalent to roughly 20 days of global oil consumption. Numerically, this marks the IEA’s largest coordinated reserve release since its founding in 1973. During the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, member countries released a combined 180 million barrels in two separate actions; this latest move more than doubles that amount. The IEA did not announce a unified release schedule, stating only that each member would implement releases according to its own circumstances. According to CCTV News, the U.S. Department of Energy plans to begin releasing 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) next week; Germany will release 19.51 million barrels; Canada, 23.6 million barrels; South Korea, 22.46 million barrels; and Japan will begin releasing its national petroleum reserves on March 16. Yet markets remained unconvinced, and oil prices continued rising. On March 12, Brent crude settled up 9.2%, breaking above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022; on March 13, it closed again above $100, at $103.89 per barrel. For the week, Brent crude gained 12%. As one commodities analyst put it: “This is a flow problem—not a stock problem.” BMI, a research unit under Fitch Solutions, told reporters from Yicai Global (hereinafter referred to as Yicai) that it expects daily release volumes to range between 300,000 and 3.5 million barrels—while current Gulf region shutdowns already exceed 15 million barrels per day. Huatai Futures noted in its March 12 report that although the IEA’s total release amounts to 400 million barrels, the overall delivery pace remains slow: “For example, the U.S.’s 172-million-barrel SPR release will take 120 days to complete, whereas supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure amount to as much as 10 million barrels per day. Therefore, unless the 400 million barrels can be rapidly deployed within a short timeframe, the impact on alleviating the market’s supply shortfall remains negligible.” Rebecca Babin, Senior Energy Trader at CIBC Private Wealth, remarked: “Auctioning, loading, and physically injecting crude into the system all require time.

The International Energy Agency plans to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, and Trump has authorized the U.S. Department of Energy to release 172 million barrels of crude oil—what impacts will these measures bring?

On March 11 local time, the 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) unanimously agreed to inject 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves into the market to counteract disruptions to the global oil market triggered by the Middle East conflict. This represents the largest-ever petroleum reserve release plan in the IEA’s history. Nonetheless, international oil prices continued to surge significantly. According to CCTV News, oil prices rose markedly on March 11. By market close that day, NYMEX April-delivery light crude futures rose $3.80 to settle at $87.25 per barrel—a 4.55% increase; May-delivery London Brent crude futures rose $4.18 to settle at $91.98 per barrel—a 4.76% increase. ・ IEA member countries unanimously agree to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves According to Xinhua News Agency, the IEA issued a statement on March 11 announcing that its 32 member countries had unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to address tightening global oil supplies caused by U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that the strategic petroleum reserve releases would be implemented in stages, within appropriate timeframes tailored to each member country’s specific circumstances. The IEA will announce detailed implementation plans for the 400-million-barrel release at a later date and will continue closely monitoring developments in global oil and natural gas markets. Birol previously noted in a press release that IEA member countries collectively hold over 1.2 billion barrels of publicly held emergency petroleum reserves, plus approximately 600 million barrels of corporate reserves under government oversight. Under relevant mechanisms, IEA member countries must maintain petroleum reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports—and stand ready to respond to severe global oil supply disruptions. ・ The United States will release 172 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves According to Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. Department of Energy announced on March 11 that it would release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counteract rising oil prices triggered by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran.

IEA Chief Says Oil Stock Release Timing Up to Individual Members

Oct 20, 2026

The IEA Executive Director stated that releasing 20 million barrels of diesel from emergency reserves depends on individual countries and market conditions. This accelerates a March pledge to release over 400 million barrels of crude and oil products to curb soaring prices.

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