Why did the IEA downgrade Russia's oil production forecast for 2026 and 2027?

The IEA downgraded Russia's oil production forecast for 2026 and 2027 due to sustained Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, including refineries, storage facilities, and transportation infrastructure. These attacks have weakened production prospects, prompting the IEA to cut its 2025 and 2026 Russian oil supply forecasts by 85,000 barrels per day and 150,000 barrels per day respectively, with an average forecast of 8.8 million barrels per day over the projection period.

What are the immediate domestic fuel consequences in Russia following the drone strikes on refineries?

The drone strikes—particularly on nearly all major western refineries and recently extending to the Omsk refinery in Siberia (450,000 bpd capacity)—have directly undermined Russia’s refining capacity and triggered a domestic fuel crisis. With limited domestic storage capacity and damaged refining infrastructure, Russia has increased crude oil exports to ease inventory pressure; President Putin acknowledged fuel supply problems, and Russia imposed temporary export bans on gasoline and jet fuel, followed by a formal diesel export ban.